Multiple myeloma (MM) is a hematological malignancy of terminally differentiated plasma cells residing within the bone marrow with 25,000-30,000 patients diagnosed in the United States each year. The disease's clinical course depends on a complex interplay chromosomal abnormalities and mutations within plasma cells and patient socio-demographic factors. Novel treatments extended the time to disease progression and overall survival for the majority of patients. However, a subset of 15%-20% of MM patients exhibit an aggressive disease course with rapid disease progression and poor overall survival regardless of treatment. Accurately predicting which patients are at high-risk is critical to designing studies with a better understanding of myeloma progression and enabling the discovery of novel therapeutics that extend the progression free period of these patients.
To date, most MM risk models use patient demographic data, clinical laboratory results and cytogenetic assays to predict clinical outcome. High-risk associated cytogenetic alterations include deletion of 17p or gain of 1q as well as t(14;16), t(14;20), and most commonly t(4,14), which leads to juxtaposition of MMSET with the immunoglobulin heavy chain locus promoter, resulting in overexpression of the MMSET oncogene. While cytogenetic assays, in particular fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), are widely available, their risk prediction is sub-optimal and recently developed gene expression based classifiers predict more accurately rapid progression. To investigate possible improvements to models of myeloma risk, we organized the Multiple Myeloma DREAM Challenge, focusing on predicting high-risk, defined as disease progression or death prior to 18 months from diagnosis. This effort combined 4 discovery datasets providing participants with clinical, cytogenetic, demographic and gene expression data to facilitate model development while retaining 4 additional datasets, whose clinical outcome was not publicly available, in order to benchmark submitted models. This crowd-sourced effort resulted in the unbiased assessment of 171 predictive algorithms on the validation dataset (N = 823 unique patient samples). Analysis of top performing methods identified high expression of PHF19, a histone methyltransferase, as the gene most strongly associated with disease progression, showing greater predictive power than the expression level of the putative high-risk gene MMSET. We show that a simple 4 feature model composed of age, stage and the gene expression of PHF19 and MMSET is as accurate as much larger published models composed of over 50 genes combined with ISS and age. Results from this work suggest that combination of gene expression and clinical data increases accuracy of high risk models which would improve patient selection in the clinic.
Towfic:Celgene Corporation: Employment, Equity Ownership. Dalton:MILLENNIUM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.: Honoraria. Goldschmidt:Bristol-Myers Squibb: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; John-Hopkins University: Research Funding; Celgene: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Mundipharma: Research Funding; Amgen: Consultancy, Research Funding; Chugai: Honoraria, Research Funding; Janssen: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Molecular Partners: Research Funding; MSD: Research Funding; Sanofi: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Takeda: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Novartis: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Adaptive Biotechnology: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Janssen: Consultancy, Research Funding; Dietmar-Hopp-Stiftung: Research Funding; John-Hopkins University: Research Funding. Avet-Loiseau:takeda: Consultancy, Other: travel fees, lecture fees, Research Funding; celgene: Consultancy, Other: travel fees, lecture fees, Research Funding. Ortiz:Celgene Corporation: Employment, Equity Ownership. Trotter:Celgene Corporation: Employment, Equity Ownership. Dervan:Celgene: Employment. Flynt:Celgene Corporation: Employment, Equity Ownership. Dai:M2Gen: Employment. Bassett:Celgene: Employment, Equity Ownership. Sonneveld:SkylineDx: Research Funding; Takeda: Honoraria, Research Funding; Karyopharm: Honoraria, Research Funding; Janssen: Honoraria, Research Funding; Celgene: Honoraria, Research Funding; BMS: Honoraria; Amgen: Honoraria, Research Funding. Shain:Amgen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Bristol-Myers Squibb: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Celgene: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Janssen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; AbbVie: Research Funding; Takeda: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Sanofi Genzyme: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Adaptive Biotechnologies: Consultancy. Munshi:Abbvie: Consultancy; Takeda: Consultancy; Oncopep: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy; Adaptive: Consultancy; Amgen: Consultancy; Janssen: Consultancy. Morgan:Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene Corporation, Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria; Celgene Corporation, Janssen: Research Funding; Amgen, Janssen, Takeda, Celgene Corporation: Other: Travel expenses. Walker:Celgene: Research Funding. Thakurta:Celgene: Employment, Equity Ownership.
Author notes
Asterisk with author names denotes non-ASH members.
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