the Impact of Clonal Dynamics on Prognosis and Outcome in Myelodysplastic Syndromes

Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are a heterogeneous group of chronic myeloid neoplasms, in which disease progression is quite common, eventually terminating in secondary acute myeloid leukemia (sAML). To elucidate differential roles of mutations in MDS progression and sAML evolution, we investigated clonal dynamics of somatic mutations using targeted sequencing of 699 MDS patients, of which 122 were analyzed for longitudinally collected samples. Combining publicly available data, mutational data in a total of 2,250 MDS cases were assessed for their enrichment in specific disease subtypes. All samples were obtained after informed consent.

Genotyping data from samples with low- (n=1,207) and high-risk (n=683) MDS as well as sAML (n=360) were available for most prevalently mutated 25 driver genes. In univariate comparison between low- and high-risk MDS, the majority of differentially mutated genes were enriched in high-risk MDS, except for SF3B1, which was more frequently mutated in low-risk MDS. Multivariate analysis was performed using a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator model. As a result, mutations in 7 genes (FLT3, PTPN11, WT1, IDH1, NPM1, IDH2,and NRAS) designated as 'Type-1' mutations, were significantly enriched in sAML compared to high-risk MDS. When comparison was made between high- and low-risk MDS, mutations in 10 genes, including GATA2, NRAS, KRAS, IDH2, TP53, RUNX1, STAG2, ASXL1, ZRSR2, and TET2, were enriched in high-risk MDS. The latter mutations are designated as 'Type-2' mutations, excluding NRAS and IDH2 mutations, which were already assigned to the Type-1 category.

To characterize the chronological behavior of Type-1 and Type-2 mutations, we performed longitudinal analyses of 122 cases, of which 90 progressed to sAML. Overall, driver mutations tended to increase their clone sizes between two time points. In accordance with their significant enrichment in sAML, Type-1 mutations were more likely to be newly acquired at the second time points, compared to Type-2 and other mutations (P=0.0001). By contrast, in patients with high-risk MDS at the second time point, Type-2 mutations were more dominant than Type-1 mutations, and most of the Type-2 mutations (88%) increased their clone sizes at the second sampling. Similarly, Type-2 mutations found in high-risk MDS or sAML evolving from low-risk MDS increased their clone sizes more frequently (30 out of 38 mutations (79%)) than Type-2 mutations in stable low-risk MDS without disease progression over time (4 out of 11 (36%)) (P=0.02). These findings suggest that Type-1 and Type-2 mutations might be associated with progression from high-risk MDS to sAML and low- to high-risk MDS, respectively.

To further clarify the effects of the different classes of mutations on progression to sAML, 429 patients with MDS were analyzed for progression free survival (or PFS). Patients with Type-1 mutations (Group-I) had a significantly shorter PFS, compared to those who had Type-2 mutations but lacked Type-1 mutations (Group-II) (HR=1.82, 95% CI:1.08−3.05; P=0.025). Nevertheless, PFS in Group-II cases was still significantly shorter than that in other cases (HR=2.46, 95% CI:1.43−4.23; P=0.001). Of note, some Group-II cases subsequently acquired Type-I mutations during progression to sAML. By contrast, SF3B1-mutated patients tended to show slower progression to sAML, unless they carried either of Type-1 or 2 mutations (Group-III). Finally, the effects of these mutations on overall survival (OS) were assessed in a larger cohort of patients with MDS (n=1,347). Group-I cases were shown to have a significantly shorter OS than Group-II cases (HR=1.50, 95% CI:1.20−1.86; P<0.001). Other independent prognostic factors included the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) score and the mutational category (i.e., Group-I, -II, and -III) for PFS, while the presence of complex karyotypes, together with IPSS score, Group-I, -7/del(7q), age, and del(20q) were among the negative predictors of OS.

In conclusion, our study has elucidated clonal dynamics associated with MDS progression and sAML evolution. Close monitoring of these sets of distinct mutations in the prospective fashion may help in the prediction of the clinical outcome in MDS.