Comparison of progression risk of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance by method of detection

• The progression risk of patients with MGUS diagnosed with MGUS during population screening vs routine clinical care is similar.

• The MGUS detection method did not impact the MGUS risk model (monoclonal protein isotype, size, and abnormal FLC ratio) predictive value.

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is an asymptomatic premalignant disorder. The current standard of care is not to screen for MGUS, so it is often incidentally diagnosed in the clinic. It is unknown whether the outcomes of screened vs clinically detected MGUS differ. We compared the progression risk between screened vs clinical MGUS cohorts and assessed whether the MGUS detection method affected risk prediction of established clinical factors (score). We included 379 screened MGUS cases from the Olmsted County population-based study and 1384 patients with MGUS diagnosed during routine clinical evaluation at Mayo Clinic. Median follow-up time for the screened vs clinical cohort was 26.6 and 40.1 years, respectively. Accounting for death as a competing risk, the cumulative incidence of progression at 25 years was similar in the screened (11.1% [95% confidence interval [CI], 8.3-14.8]) vs clinical (10.1% [95% CI, 8.6-11.8]) MGUS cohorts, even when stratified by sex, age, or the baseline MGUS risk score. Overall, 0.9 (95% CI, 0.6-1.2) of patients with screened MGUS vs 1.0 (95% CI, 0.9-1.2) of those with clinically detected MGUS experienced disease progression for every 100 person-years of follow-up. MGUS detection method did not modify the association between MGUS risk score and progression risk (p_interaction = 0.217) and did not add to known risk factors for progression (likelihood ratio test; P = .839). Here, we show that progression risk among patients with screened vs clinically detected heavy-chain MGUS was similar. Future studies are needed to assess whether tailored follow-up of patients with screened MGUS affects clinical outcomes.