Risk Factors for Death in 632 Patients with Sickle Cell Anemia in the United States and United Kingdom

Patient characteristics and their associations with mortality were analyzed with Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Based on data from three right heart catheterization screenings studies that have recently been published, we defined the presence of pulmonary hypertension for this analysis by a Doppler-echocardiographic measurement of the tricuspid regurgitant jet velocity (TRV) ≥ 3.0 m/s, which has a 67–75% positive predictive value for a mean pulmonary artery pressure ≥ 25 mm Hg by right heart catheterization. This therefore represents a very conservative threshold for a large population screening study. Among subjects with a measurable TRV (n=572), 64 (11.2%) had measurements of ≥ 3.0 m/sec. Among those with measurable NT-proBNP (n=582), 140 (24.1%) had measurements ≥160 pg/mL, a value associated with both pulmonary hypertension and mortality. A total of 39 (7.4%) had both high TRV (≥3.0 m/sec) and high NT-proBNP (≥160 pg/mL).

Over a median follow-up time of 29 months, we observed 22 deaths. 50% (N=11) of these patients had a TRV≥ 3.0 m/sec. At 24 months the cumulative survival was 83% for patients with TRV ≥ 3.0 m/sec and 98% for patients with TRV < 3.0 m/sec (p<0.0001). The unadjusted hazard ratios for death were 11.14 (95% CI 4.1–30.1; p<0.0001) for patients with TRV above and below 3.0 m/sec and 4.55 (95% CI 1.8–11.3; p=0.001) for patients with NT-proBNP above and below 160 pg/mL. For patients with both high TRV (≥ 3.0 m/sec) and high NT-proBNP (≥ 160 pg/mL), the unadjusted hazard ratio was 14.86 (95% CI 5.5–39.9; p<0.0001). Overall, an increased risk of death was observed for both age and gender, with males at higher risk relative to females (HR=2.48, 95% CI 1.0–6.1; p=0.05), and patients older than 47 years (HR=2.02, 95% CI 1.1–3.8; p=0.03). Associations with mortality were also observed for chronic transfusions (HR=3.00, 95% CI 1.2–7.8; p=0.02) and a NYHA/WHO class value or III or IV (HR=4.52, 95% CI 1.4–14.3; p=0.01). Other variables associated with mortality in our cohort included a high hemolytic component, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), ferritin, and creatinine. Variables not associated with mortality included current hydroxyurea use, SC disease, self-reported history of painful episodes, and six-minute walk distance. In stepwise multiple proportional hazards regression analysis, the association between TRV and mortality remained significant after adjustment for all other risk factors, including ferritin, AST, creatinine and even NT-proBNP (HR 4.27, 95%CI 1.3–14.1; p=0.04).

Using a more conservative cut-off value of TRV ≥ 3.0 m/sec as defining PH in a large screening population of sickle cell disease patients, PH occurs in approximately 10% of unselected screened patients and is associated with the highest unadjusted and adjusted risk for death of any measured variable.

Gladwin:Bayer Corp: Consultancy, Research Funding; NIH and NHLBI: Research Funding; Gilead Sciences: Research Funding. Barst:Ventripoint: Stock options Other; Actelion, Eli Lilly, Gilead, Glaxo Smith-Kline (GSK), Medtronics, Bayer, Ikaria, Pfizer, Novartis, VentriPoint: Consultancy, Honoraria. Girgis:NIH/NHLBI: Research Funding, Travel support Other. Rosenzweig:NIH: Research Funding. Badesch:NIH: Research Funding. Lanzkron:NIH: Research Funding.