EVIDENCE meta-analysis: evaluating minimal residual disease as an intermediate clinical endpoint for multiple myeloma

• MRD-negativity at 12 months reduced the risk of progression; the treatment effect on MRD was correlated with the treatment effect on PFS

• MRD negativity is reasonably likely to eventually demonstrate a treatment effect on PFS

Estimating progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) superiority during clinical trials of multiple myeloma (MM) has become increasingly challenging as novel therapeutics have improved patient outcomes. Thus, it is imperative to identify earlier endpoint surrogates that are predictive of long-term clinical benefit to expedite development of more effective therapies. Minimal residual disease (MRD)-negativity is a common intermediate endpoint that has shown prognostic value for clinical benefit in trials of patients with multiple myeloma (MM). This meta-analysis was based on the FDA guidance for considerations for a meta-analysis of MRD as a clinical endpoint and evaluates MRD-negativity as an early endpoint reasonably likely to predict long-term clinical benefit. Eligible studies were phase 2 or 3 randomized controlled clinical trials measuring MRD negativity as an endpoint in patients with MM, with follow-up of ≥6 months following an a priori defined time point of 12±3 months post-randomization. Eight newly diagnosed MM-(NDMM)-studies evaluating 4,907 patients were included. Trial-level associations between MRD-negativity and PFS were R2WLSiv (95% CI) 0.67 (0.43-0.91) and R2copula 0.84 (0.64->0.99) at the 12-month timepoint. The individual-level association between 12-month MRD negativity and PFS resulted in a global odds ratio of 4.02 (95% CI: 2.57-5.46). For relapse/refractory MM-(RRMM), there were four studies included, and the individual-level association between 12-month MRD negativity and PFS resulted in a global odds ratio of 7.67 (4.24-11.10). A clinical trial demonstrating a treatment effect on MRD is reasonably likely to eventually demonstrate a treatment effect on PFS, suggesting that MRD may be an early clinical endpoint reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit in MM, that may be used to support accelerated approval and thereby expedite the availability of new drugs to patients with MM.