The detection of PML-RARa by real-time PCR (RQ-PCR) is becoming an important tool for monitoring minimal residual disease (MRD) in acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) patients; however, the clinical value of using a RQ-PCR approach remains to be determined. Our aim was to analyze the correlation between relapse risk and MRD levels assessed by RQ-PCR at different phases of treatment, and to compare these data with conventional qualitative RT-PCR. Follow-up samples from 145 APL patients treated with the PETHEMA protocols were analyzed by RQ-PCR protocol from Europe Against Cancer program and by RT-PCR method from European BIOMED-1 Concerted Action. After induction therapy, no association was found between the presence of a RQ-PCR positive result and relapse. After the third consolidation course, three cases remained positive by RQ-PCR assays and two of them (67%) relapsed. By contrast, only 16 out of 119 (13%) patients with negative RQ-PCR relapsed. During maintenance therapy and out-of treatment, a significant correlation between a RQ-PCR positive result and a poor relapse-free survival was observed (p < 0.0001). All patients with > 10 PML-RARa normalized number copies (NCN) at maintenance or out-of therapy relapsed (n=19), while all patients with < 1 NCN within out-of treatment group remained in hematological remission (n=75). 8 patients with < 1 NCN during maintenance therapy finally relapsed, but all of them appeared beyond the end of treatment. In addition, in the intermediate group of patients (NCN 1–10) (n=18) relapse probability of 40% at 5 years was observed. All hematological relapses were predicted if a follow-up sample had been obtained within the previous 4 months. Based on the information provided by RQ-PCR in samples obtained after the end of consolidation and subsequently, a relapse risk stratification could be established for APL patients.

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