Abstract
Abstract 1510
Treatment options for multiple myeloma have changed significantly over the past decade with new treatment options demonstrating improved survival in multiple clinical trials. We have previously published data demonstrating that survival has improved on the population level (Brenner et al Blood 2008) and projections of survival expectations for patients recently diagnosed with multiple myeloma which predicted continued improvement in survival for patients diagnosed in the years 2006-10 (Brenner et al Haematologica 2009). Here, we provide updated estimates of survival in myeloma and compare the results to projected survival.
Period analysis was used to calculate 5- and 10-year relative survival for patients diagnosed with multiple myeloma from 1997-01 and 2002-06, using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Survival estimates for single years were calculated as well to determine whether changes in survival were ongoing throughout the 2002-06 period.
Five and 10-year relative survival in 2002-06 was significantly higher than in earlier time periods and was similar to survival predicted for patients diagnosed 2006–2010 (see table). When individual years between 2002 and 2006 were evaluated, survival was higher in 2005 and 2006 as compared to 2002-4. Survival was higher for all age groups as compared to survival previously calculated by period analysis for 1997–2001 (see table).
Survival for patients diagnosed with multiple myeloma is improving for all age groups at a rate faster than predicted by previous models of survival. This implies a greater than linear increase in survival over the early part of the 21st century.
| Age . | 5-year relative survival 2002-06 (SE) . | 5-year relative survival 1997-2001 (SE) . | Predicted 5-year relative survival 2006-10 . | 10-year relative survival 2002-06 (SE) . | 10-year relative survival 1997-2001 (SE) . | Predicted 10-year relative survival 2006-10 . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| all | 37.8 (0.7) | 32.1 (0.7) | 36.1 | 18.9 (0.7) | 14.3 (0.6) | 18 |
| <45 | 67.2 (3.1) | 52.6 (3.3) | 68 | 47.8 (3.2) | 35.7 (3.4) | 55.3 |
| 45-49 | 59.8 (3.1) | 49.8 (3.1) | 54.9 | 37.8 (3.2) | 34.1 (3.3) | 39.4 |
| 50-54 | 55.9 (2.3) | 46 (2.6) | 55.1 | 33.1 (2.5) | 24.5 (2.6) | 32.1 |
| 55-59 | 50.1 (2.2) | 41.2 (2.3) | 49 | 28.6 (2.5) | 21.2 (2.3) | 28.8 |
| 60-64 | 40.9 (2) | 36.2 (2.1) | 40.6 | 19 (1.9) | 14 (1.6) | 17.6 |
| 65-74 | 35.4 (1.9) | 31.5 (1.2) | 33.9 | 13.3 (1.6) | 11.4 (1) | 13.8 |
| 75+ | 21 (1.2) | 19.3 (1.1) | 18.8 | 7.9 (1.1) | 5.5 (0.9) | 6.1 |
| Age . | 5-year relative survival 2002-06 (SE) . | 5-year relative survival 1997-2001 (SE) . | Predicted 5-year relative survival 2006-10 . | 10-year relative survival 2002-06 (SE) . | 10-year relative survival 1997-2001 (SE) . | Predicted 10-year relative survival 2006-10 . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| all | 37.8 (0.7) | 32.1 (0.7) | 36.1 | 18.9 (0.7) | 14.3 (0.6) | 18 |
| <45 | 67.2 (3.1) | 52.6 (3.3) | 68 | 47.8 (3.2) | 35.7 (3.4) | 55.3 |
| 45-49 | 59.8 (3.1) | 49.8 (3.1) | 54.9 | 37.8 (3.2) | 34.1 (3.3) | 39.4 |
| 50-54 | 55.9 (2.3) | 46 (2.6) | 55.1 | 33.1 (2.5) | 24.5 (2.6) | 32.1 |
| 55-59 | 50.1 (2.2) | 41.2 (2.3) | 49 | 28.6 (2.5) | 21.2 (2.3) | 28.8 |
| 60-64 | 40.9 (2) | 36.2 (2.1) | 40.6 | 19 (1.9) | 14 (1.6) | 17.6 |
| 65-74 | 35.4 (1.9) | 31.5 (1.2) | 33.9 | 13.3 (1.6) | 11.4 (1) | 13.8 |
| 75+ | 21 (1.2) | 19.3 (1.1) | 18.8 | 7.9 (1.1) | 5.5 (0.9) | 6.1 |
Table: 5- and 10-year relative survival for 2002-06 calculated using period analysis. Values for predicted survival are projected survival estimates for patients diagnosed in the years 2006-10.
No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.
Author notes
Asterisk with author names denotes non-ASH members.
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