Validation of the prediction model showing observed incidences of major bleeding and/or death within 28 days of randomization for patients in each of the 4 quartiles of baseline risks. The triangles indicate the observed incidences (proportion of patients with an event) in each of the 4 quartiles of predicted baseline risks (very low, <13%; low, 13%-16%; intermediate, 17%-24%; and high, >24%). The diagonal line represents a situation of perfect prediction when the observed incidences would be identical to the predicted baseline risks. The distribution of predicted baseline risks of major bleed and/or death is shown at the bottom of the graph.