Pre-BMT mortality risk is optimally predicted by assessment of 5 response/organ function markers 7 days after initiation of etoposide-based therapy. (A) Forest plots of the OR and 95% CI of pre-BMT mortality prediction by day 7 markers using each timepoint’s associated ROC-derived cutoffs. (Figure 4; supplemental Table 5). Thresholds were rounded for more practical clinical use. An OR could not be estimated for BUN or ≥3 unfavorable markers because all patients who died before BMT had a BUN above the specified cutoff and no survivors had ≥3 poor prognostic markers. Similar analysis using imputed data is shown in supplemental Figure 7A. (B) Accuracy (correct predictions/total predictions), precision (correctly predicted deaths/total predicted deaths), recall (correctly predicted deaths/actual deaths), and F score (harmonic mean of precision and recall; a balanced score of overall performance) based on ROC-derived thresholds for day 7 markers. Sum 1 means at least 1 threshold exceeded, sum 2 any 2 thresholds exceeded, etc. (C) Recall analysis of patients with pre-BMT mortality whose outcome was correctly predicted using standard laboratories only vs those with sCD25 data available. The models improved by 8% and 17% when sCD25 data were included. Improvement = (difference between baseline and day 7 values)/baseline value. Pts, patients.