Mixed effect regression results of individual cellular and plasma biomarkers. Biomarker values at the onset of cGVHD were compared against blood samples from patients without cGVHD across all time points, combined with blood samples from patients with cGVHD before the onset of cGVHD. The dashed horizontal lines correspond to the Bonferroni-corrected P value threshold. Dashed vertical lines indicate the log₁₀ of the lower and upper limits of the effect ratio criterion. A dot (as opposed to a “x”) indicates the ROC AUC is above 0.6. (A) Onset of cGVHD of all severities (mild, moderate, or severe) according to the NIH-CC. Various populations of naïve Th cells, naïve Treg cells, NKreg cells, and cytolytic NK cells were decreased in cGVHD, whereas various cytokines and chemokines, including CXCL9, CXCL10, CXCL11, ST2, ICAM-1, and enzymatic activity in sCD13 (aminopeptidase N) were increased at the onset of cGVHD (detailed in supplemental Table 4). (B) Onset of cGVHD restricted to cases meeting the NIH-CC for moderate to severe cGVHD (mild cases removed). Similar patterns of cellular and plasma biomarkers are present in moderate to severe cGVHD, with the exception that an additional population of NKregs is decreased (CD56^brightCD3⁻Granzyme B⁻), and decreased cytolytic NK cells are no longer significant (detailed in supplemental Table 5). Tc, cytotoxic T cell.