Risk-stratification models to predict progression of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance to myeloma or related disorders
Risk group . | No. patients . | Relative risk, 95% CI . | Absolute risk of progression at 20 years, % . | Absolute risk of progression at 20 years accounting for death as a competing risk, % . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addition of FLC ratio to known prognostic categories | ||||
| Low risk (serum M protein < 15 g/L and IgG subtype) | ||||
| Normal FLC ratio | 449 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| Abnormal FLC ratio | 142 | 7.4 | 27 | 12 |
| Intermediate risk (either serum M protein ≥ 15 g/L or non-IgG subtype) | ||||
| Normal FLC ratio | 278 | 1 | 22 | 9 |
| Abnormal FLC ratio | 184 | 2.2 | 37 | 17 |
| High risk (serum M protein ≥ 15 g/L and non-IgG subtype) | ||||
| Normal FLC ratio | 42 | 1 | 37 | 23 |
| Abnormal FLC ratio | 53 | 1.5 | 58 | 27 |
| Risk stratification model incorporating all 3 predictive factors | ||||
| Low risk (serum M protein < 15 g/dL, IgG subtype, normal FLC ratio [0.26-1.65]) | 449 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| Low-intermediate risk (any 1 factor abnormal) | 420 | 5.4 | 21 | 10 |
| High-intermediate risk (any 2 factors abnormal) | 226 | 10.1 | 37 | 18 |
| High risk (all 3 factors abnormal) | 53 | 20.8 | 58 | 27 |
Risk group . | No. patients . | Relative risk, 95% CI . | Absolute risk of progression at 20 years, % . | Absolute risk of progression at 20 years accounting for death as a competing risk, % . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addition of FLC ratio to known prognostic categories | ||||
| Low risk (serum M protein < 15 g/L and IgG subtype) | ||||
| Normal FLC ratio | 449 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| Abnormal FLC ratio | 142 | 7.4 | 27 | 12 |
| Intermediate risk (either serum M protein ≥ 15 g/L or non-IgG subtype) | ||||
| Normal FLC ratio | 278 | 1 | 22 | 9 |
| Abnormal FLC ratio | 184 | 2.2 | 37 | 17 |
| High risk (serum M protein ≥ 15 g/L and non-IgG subtype) | ||||
| Normal FLC ratio | 42 | 1 | 37 | 23 |
| Abnormal FLC ratio | 53 | 1.5 | 58 | 27 |
| Risk stratification model incorporating all 3 predictive factors | ||||
| Low risk (serum M protein < 15 g/dL, IgG subtype, normal FLC ratio [0.26-1.65]) | 449 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| Low-intermediate risk (any 1 factor abnormal) | 420 | 5.4 | 21 | 10 |
| High-intermediate risk (any 2 factors abnormal) | 226 | 10.1 | 37 | 18 |
| High risk (all 3 factors abnormal) | 53 | 20.8 | 58 | 27 |