Table 2.

Absolute risk of progression of MGUS to myeloma or related disorders based on the serum FLC ratio



Risk based on FLC (kappa-lambda) ratio using the current diagnostic reference range

Risk based on increasingly abnormal FLC (kappa-lambda) ratio

Normal ratio 0.26-1.65*
Abnormal ratio < 0.26 or > 1.65
FLC ratio 0.25-4
FLC ratio 0.125-0.25 or 4-8§
FLC ratio < 0.125 or > 8
Absolute risk of progression, % of patients (95% CI)      
    Time of follow-up       
        5 y   2.5 (1.3-3.8)   8 (4.8-11)   3.1 (1.9-4.4)   9.4 (2.4-15.9)   13.5 (4.3-22.5)  
        10 y   5.3 (3.2-7.4)   16.7 (11.4-21.7)   6.4 (4.4-8.4)   19.3 (8.5-31.3)   31.7 (13.5-46.1)  
        15 y   6.6 (4-9.8)   29.9 (21.1-37.8)   9.6 (6.5-12.6)   42.3 (20.1-60.4)   47.3 (18.6-67.1)  
        20 y   12.6 (4.5-20.7)   35 (23.6-45)   15.8 (8.5-22.7)   42.3 (20.1-67.2)   60.5 (19.3-82.7)  
Cumulative annual rate of progression, %/y   0.6   1.8   0.8   2   3  
Cumulative annual rate of progression, after adjusting for competing risk of death, %/y
 
0.3
 
0.8
 
0.4
 
1
 
1.3
 


Risk based on FLC (kappa-lambda) ratio using the current diagnostic reference range

Risk based on increasingly abnormal FLC (kappa-lambda) ratio

Normal ratio 0.26-1.65*
Abnormal ratio < 0.26 or > 1.65
FLC ratio 0.25-4
FLC ratio 0.125-0.25 or 4-8§
FLC ratio < 0.125 or > 8
Absolute risk of progression, % of patients (95% CI)      
    Time of follow-up       
        5 y   2.5 (1.3-3.8)   8 (4.8-11)   3.1 (1.9-4.4)   9.4 (2.4-15.9)   13.5 (4.3-22.5)  
        10 y   5.3 (3.2-7.4)   16.7 (11.4-21.7)   6.4 (4.4-8.4)   19.3 (8.5-31.3)   31.7 (13.5-46.1)  
        15 y   6.6 (4-9.8)   29.9 (21.1-37.8)   9.6 (6.5-12.6)   42.3 (20.1-60.4)   47.3 (18.6-67.1)  
        20 y   12.6 (4.5-20.7)   35 (23.6-45)   15.8 (8.5-22.7)   42.3 (20.1-67.2)   60.5 (19.3-82.7)  
Cumulative annual rate of progression, %/y   0.6   1.8   0.8   2   3  
Cumulative annual rate of progression, after adjusting for competing risk of death, %/y
 
0.3
 
0.8
 
0.4
 
1
 
1.3
 
*

n = 769.

n = 379.

n = 977.

§

n = 95.

n = 76.

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