Variables used by 4 prediction rules to estimate recurrence risk after unprovoked VTE
| Predictor . | HERDOO2* . | Vienna† . | DASH‡ . | PIT-STOP¶ . | Our approach . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D-dimer, ng/mL | >250 (Vidas) | Progressive | >500 | >500 | >500 |
| Measured on/off anticoagulants | On | Off | Off | Off | Off |
| Isolated distal DVT | Excluded | Lower risk | Lower risk | Lower risk | Lower risk |
| PE vs proximal DVT | PE = DVT | PE > DVT | PE = DVT | PE = DVT | PE = DVT |
| Male vs female | Higher risk* | Higher risk | Higher risk | Higher risk | Higher risk |
| Estrogen-associated | No distinction | Lower risk | Lower risk | Excluded | Lower risk |
| Older age | Higher risk in women >65 y | Not included | Lower risk in all >50 y | Lower risk | Not included |
| Hyperpigmentation/edema/redness | Higher risk | Not included | Not included | Not included | Not included |
| Obesity | Higher risk | Not included | Not included | Not included | Not included |
| Predictor . | HERDOO2* . | Vienna† . | DASH‡ . | PIT-STOP¶ . | Our approach . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D-dimer, ng/mL | >250 (Vidas) | Progressive | >500 | >500 | >500 |
| Measured on/off anticoagulants | On | Off | Off | Off | Off |
| Isolated distal DVT | Excluded | Lower risk | Lower risk | Lower risk | Lower risk |
| PE vs proximal DVT | PE = DVT | PE > DVT | PE = DVT | PE = DVT | PE = DVT |
| Male vs female | Higher risk* | Higher risk | Higher risk | Higher risk | Higher risk |
| Estrogen-associated | No distinction | Lower risk | Lower risk | Excluded | Lower risk |
| Older age | Higher risk in women >65 y | Not included | Lower risk in all >50 y | Lower risk | Not included |
| Hyperpigmentation/edema/redness | Higher risk | Not included | Not included | Not included | Not included |
| Obesity | Higher risk | Not included | Not included | Not included | Not included |
Higher risk in males in the overall analysis, but as only a low-risk subgroup could be identified among females, the prediction rule only applies to females: hyperpigmentation/edema/redness, d-dimer, obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2), older (> 65 y); low risk (<3%/year) if fewer than 2 variables (HERDOO2).
A nomogram is used to calculate recurrence risk at 1 or 5 years after stopping anticoagulants.
d-dimer levels (+2 score), age 50 years or younger (+1 score), male sex (+1 score) and hormone use (−2 score) are used to calculate recurrence risk at 1, 2, and 5 years; low risk (<5%/year) if score is 1 or lower.
Development of prediction equations for recurrent VTE risk using individual patient data from the DASH collaborator group; a calculator is used to generate estimates.