The probabilities used for the analysis of cost-effectiveness with plausible ranges and distributions for a sensitivity analysis
| Items . | Values or formulae . | Ref. . | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline . | Plausible range . | ||
| At 12 mo* | |||
| Imatinib | |||
| CCyR | 0.7 | 0.60-0.81 | 8 |
| AP/BC | 0.015 | 0.013-0.017 | 1, 2 |
| Not CCyR or intolerant | Remainder | ||
| Dasatinib | |||
| CCyR | 0.85 | 0.72-0.98 | 8 |
| AP/BC | 0.01 | 0.009-0.012 | 5 |
| Not CCyR or intolerant | Remainder | ||
| Nilotinib | |||
| CCyR | 0.8 | 0.68-0.92 | 8 |
| AP/BC | 0.008 | 0.007-0.009 | 6 |
| Not CCyR or intolerant | Remainder | ||
| At TKI switch* | |||
| Annual transition probability after switch to imatinib | |||
| Survive | 0.977 | 0.83-1 | 1, 2 |
| AP/BC | 0.014 | ||
| Die without progression | Remainder | ||
| Annual transition probability after switch to dasatinib | |||
| Survive | 0.931 | 0.79-1 | 3, 21, 22 |
| AP/BC | 0.037 | ||
| Die without progression | Remainder | ||
| Annual transition probability after switch to nilotinib | |||
| Survive | 0.933 | 0.79-1 | 4, 23 |
| AP/BC | 0.032 | ||
| Die without progression | Remainder | ||
| At AP/BC | |||
| Proceed to SCT after AP/BC | 0.41 | 0-1 | 1, 2 |
| Survive after SCT | 0.5 | 0.425-0.575 | 8 |
| At CCyR | |||
| Annual transition probability from CCyR to MR4.5 | |||
| Imatinib | 0.147 | 0.125-0.181 | 1, 2, 6 |
| Dasatinib | 0.157 | 0.11-0.171 | 5 |
| Nilotinib | 0.231 | 0.192-0.284 | 6 |
| Annual transition probability from CCyR to MR4.0 | |||
| Imatinib | 0.205 | 0.165-0.248 | 1, 2, 6 |
| Dasatinib | 0.255 | 0.212-0.293 | 5 |
| Nilotinib | 0.352 | 0.290-0.422 | 6 |
| At MR4.5 | |||
| Probability of successful stop TKI | |||
| Imatinib | 0.38 | 0.33-0.5 | 12-15, 19 |
| Dasatinib | 0.54 | 0.46-0.62 | 16-19 |
| Nilotinib | 0.54 | 0.46-0.62 | 16-19 |
| Items . | Values or formulae . | Ref. . | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline . | Plausible range . | ||
| At 12 mo* | |||
| Imatinib | |||
| CCyR | 0.7 | 0.60-0.81 | 8 |
| AP/BC | 0.015 | 0.013-0.017 | 1, 2 |
| Not CCyR or intolerant | Remainder | ||
| Dasatinib | |||
| CCyR | 0.85 | 0.72-0.98 | 8 |
| AP/BC | 0.01 | 0.009-0.012 | 5 |
| Not CCyR or intolerant | Remainder | ||
| Nilotinib | |||
| CCyR | 0.8 | 0.68-0.92 | 8 |
| AP/BC | 0.008 | 0.007-0.009 | 6 |
| Not CCyR or intolerant | Remainder | ||
| At TKI switch* | |||
| Annual transition probability after switch to imatinib | |||
| Survive | 0.977 | 0.83-1 | 1, 2 |
| AP/BC | 0.014 | ||
| Die without progression | Remainder | ||
| Annual transition probability after switch to dasatinib | |||
| Survive | 0.931 | 0.79-1 | 3, 21, 22 |
| AP/BC | 0.037 | ||
| Die without progression | Remainder | ||
| Annual transition probability after switch to nilotinib | |||
| Survive | 0.933 | 0.79-1 | 4, 23 |
| AP/BC | 0.032 | ||
| Die without progression | Remainder | ||
| At AP/BC | |||
| Proceed to SCT after AP/BC | 0.41 | 0-1 | 1, 2 |
| Survive after SCT | 0.5 | 0.425-0.575 | 8 |
| At CCyR | |||
| Annual transition probability from CCyR to MR4.5 | |||
| Imatinib | 0.147 | 0.125-0.181 | 1, 2, 6 |
| Dasatinib | 0.157 | 0.11-0.171 | 5 |
| Nilotinib | 0.231 | 0.192-0.284 | 6 |
| Annual transition probability from CCyR to MR4.0 | |||
| Imatinib | 0.205 | 0.165-0.248 | 1, 2, 6 |
| Dasatinib | 0.255 | 0.212-0.293 | 5 |
| Nilotinib | 0.352 | 0.290-0.422 | 6 |
| At MR4.5 | |||
| Probability of successful stop TKI | |||
| Imatinib | 0.38 | 0.33-0.5 | 12-15, 19 |
| Dasatinib | 0.54 | 0.46-0.62 | 16-19 |
| Nilotinib | 0.54 | 0.46-0.62 | 16-19 |
β distributions were applied for probabilistic sensitivity analysis.
MR4.5, molecular response 4.5 (BCR-ABL IS ⩽0.0032%); MR4.0, molecular response 4.0 (BCR-ABL IS ⩽0.01%); Ref., reference number.
For nodes with multiple subtrees, Dirichret distributions were applied for probabilistic sensitivity analysis.