Model parameters: base case values and plausible ranges
| Variable . | Treatment dose . | Base case . | Plausible range . | Reference . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treatment effectiveness (for patients with a complete response after initial chemotherapy), % | ||||
| 3-year EFS | 4 | |||
| CT | 87.0 | 84.8-89.2 | ||
| CRT | 92.0 | 90.1-93.9 | ||
| 5-year OS for salvage therapy | 74.2 | 58.7-84.6 | 13 | |
| Late HL recurrence, yearly risk, %* | ||||
| Mortality risk | 0.33 | 0.28-0.38 | 12 | |
| Late-effects mortality, relative risk†‡ | ||||
| CT | ||||
| Cardiac | 8 | |||
| Anthracycline, mg/m2 | < 239 | 1.0 | 0.1-5.5 | |
| CRT | ||||
| Cardiac | 8 | |||
| Radiation dose to heart, Gy | 5-14.9 | 12.5 | 1.4-116.1 | |
| Anthracycline, mg/m2 | < 239 | 1.0 | 0.1-5.5 | |
| Second cancer | 7 | |||
| Integral radiation dose, J§ | 41-149 | 2.1 | 1.12-3.8 | |
| Salvage | ||||
| Cardiac | 8 | |||
| Radiation dose to heart, Gy | ≥ 15 | 25.1 | 3.0-209.5 | |
| Anthracycline, mg/m2 | < 239 | 1.0 | 0.1-5.5 | |
| Second cancer | 7 | |||
| Integral radiation dose, J§ | ≥ 150 | 5.9 | 3.1-11.3 | |
| Variable . | Treatment dose . | Base case . | Plausible range . | Reference . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treatment effectiveness (for patients with a complete response after initial chemotherapy), % | ||||
| 3-year EFS | 4 | |||
| CT | 87.0 | 84.8-89.2 | ||
| CRT | 92.0 | 90.1-93.9 | ||
| 5-year OS for salvage therapy | 74.2 | 58.7-84.6 | 13 | |
| Late HL recurrence, yearly risk, %* | ||||
| Mortality risk | 0.33 | 0.28-0.38 | 12 | |
| Late-effects mortality, relative risk†‡ | ||||
| CT | ||||
| Cardiac | 8 | |||
| Anthracycline, mg/m2 | < 239 | 1.0 | 0.1-5.5 | |
| CRT | ||||
| Cardiac | 8 | |||
| Radiation dose to heart, Gy | 5-14.9 | 12.5 | 1.4-116.1 | |
| Anthracycline, mg/m2 | < 239 | 1.0 | 0.1-5.5 | |
| Second cancer | 7 | |||
| Integral radiation dose, J§ | 41-149 | 2.1 | 1.12-3.8 | |
| Salvage | ||||
| Cardiac | 8 | |||
| Radiation dose to heart, Gy | ≥ 15 | 25.1 | 3.0-209.5 | |
| Anthracycline, mg/m2 | < 239 | 1.0 | 0.1-5.5 | |
| Second cancer | 7 | |||
| Integral radiation dose, J§ | ≥ 150 | 5.9 | 3.1-11.3 | |
Assumed persons face risk for late HL recurrence from 3 years (treatment completion) to 10 years since diagnosis.12
Assumed persons face risk for late-effects mortality beginning 5 years after initial HL diagnosis.
Cause- and age-specific rates based on U S life tables using the following International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes: cardiac (ICD 390-398, 402, 404, 410-429) and secondary and subsequent cancers (ICD 140-239).12,14
Integral radiation dose in joules (J) represents total absorbed energy and reflects dose delivered, irradiated volume, and density; 1 J corresponds to a dose of 1 gray (Gy) in a 1-L water volume.7,15