Analysis of 6 analytes in 167 samples collected at 11 to 17 d (day 14 ± 3) after transplantation
| . | Area under ROC curve, P value OR (95% CI), per log increase in analyte . | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| . | Peak grade 2-4 (n = 100) vs grade 0-1 . | Peak grade 2b-4 (n = 37) vs grade 0-2a . | Peak grade 3-4 (n = 11) vs grade 0-2 . |
| HGF | |||
| AUC | 0.56 | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| P | .31 | .29 | .17 |
| OR (95% CI) | 1.6 (0.6-4.0) | 1.7 (0.6-4.7) | 2.9 (0.7-13) |
| IL6 | |||
| AUC | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| P | .10 | .008 | .05 |
| OR (95% CI) | 1.5 (0.9-2.7) | 2.2 (1.2-4.0) | 2.4 (1.0-5.8) |
| ST2 | |||
| AUC | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| P | .66 | .73 | .32 |
| OR (95% CI) | 1.2 (0.5-2.8) | 1.2 (0.5-3.1) | 2.1 (0.5-8.3) |
| TIM3 | |||
| AUC | 0.64 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| P | .002 | .0004 | .01 |
| OR (95% CI) | 6.0 (1.9-19) | 9.9 (2.7-36) | 12.1 (1.6-92) |
| TNFα | |||
| AUC | 0.53 | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| P | .64 | .16 | .20 |
| OR (95% CI) | 1.4 (0.4-5.0) | 2.8 (0.7-12.2) | 4.2 (0.5-36) |
| sTNFR1 | |||
| AUC | 0.61 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| P | .02 | .01 | .03 |
| OR (95% CI) | 5.4 (1.3-23) | 7.0 (1.5-33) | 12.9 (1.3-130) |
| Best model by forward selection | TIM3 | TIM3 | TIM3 |
| AUC | 0.64 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| P | .002 | .0004 | .01 |
| OR (95% CI) | 6.0 (1.9-19) | 9.9 (2.7-34) | 12.1 (1.6-92) |
| . | Area under ROC curve, P value OR (95% CI), per log increase in analyte . | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| . | Peak grade 2-4 (n = 100) vs grade 0-1 . | Peak grade 2b-4 (n = 37) vs grade 0-2a . | Peak grade 3-4 (n = 11) vs grade 0-2 . |
| HGF | |||
| AUC | 0.56 | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| P | .31 | .29 | .17 |
| OR (95% CI) | 1.6 (0.6-4.0) | 1.7 (0.6-4.7) | 2.9 (0.7-13) |
| IL6 | |||
| AUC | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| P | .10 | .008 | .05 |
| OR (95% CI) | 1.5 (0.9-2.7) | 2.2 (1.2-4.0) | 2.4 (1.0-5.8) |
| ST2 | |||
| AUC | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| P | .66 | .73 | .32 |
| OR (95% CI) | 1.2 (0.5-2.8) | 1.2 (0.5-3.1) | 2.1 (0.5-8.3) |
| TIM3 | |||
| AUC | 0.64 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| P | .002 | .0004 | .01 |
| OR (95% CI) | 6.0 (1.9-19) | 9.9 (2.7-36) | 12.1 (1.6-92) |
| TNFα | |||
| AUC | 0.53 | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| P | .64 | .16 | .20 |
| OR (95% CI) | 1.4 (0.4-5.0) | 2.8 (0.7-12.2) | 4.2 (0.5-36) |
| sTNFR1 | |||
| AUC | 0.61 | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| P | .02 | .01 | .03 |
| OR (95% CI) | 5.4 (1.3-23) | 7.0 (1.5-33) | 12.9 (1.3-130) |
| Best model by forward selection | TIM3 | TIM3 | TIM3 |
| AUC | 0.64 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| P | .002 | .0004 | .01 |
| OR (95% CI) | 6.0 (1.9-19) | 9.9 (2.7-34) | 12.1 (1.6-92) |
Patients did not have GVHD when the blood sample was drawn. End points are defined by onset of GVHD with gut involvement requiring systemic therapy.