SMM outcomes risk stratified by baseline variables and evolving variables over 1 y
| . | n (%) . | Median TTP, mo . | Log-rank P . | 2-y PD, % . | Overall PD, % . | Specificity, % . | Sensitivity, % . | Accuracy, % . | 2-y AUC . | Integrated time-dependent AUC . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline Factors | ||||||||||
| dFLC | ||||||||||
| dFLC <100 mg/L | 111 (41) | 92.6 | .0454 | 14 | 3 | |||||
| dFLC ≥100 mg/L | 72 (26) | 71.3 | 36 | 44 | 68 | 61 | 66 | 0.64 | 0.55 | |
| NE | 90 (33) | |||||||||
| FLCr | ||||||||||
| FLCr <8 | 81 (30) | 96.1 | .0325 | 12 | 31 | |||||
| FLCr ≥8 | 102 (37) | 71.3 | 31 | 45 | 51 | 76 | 56 | 0.63 | 0.55 | |
| NE | 90 (33) | |||||||||
| FLCr <100 | 156 (57) | 92.6 | .0019 | 19 | 36 | |||||
| FLCr ≥100 | 27 (10) | 40.2 | 44 | 56 | 90 | 28 | 75 | 0.59 | 0.59 | |
| NE | 90 (33) | |||||||||
| m-protein | ||||||||||
| <3 g/dL | 189 (69) | 115.2 | <.0001 | 20 | 38 | |||||
| ≥3 g/dL | 31 (11) | 21.8 | 45 | 74 | 91 | 29 | 75 | 0.60 | 0.47 | |
| NE | 53 (19) | |||||||||
| FISH* | ||||||||||
| Normal | 91 (33) | 73.0 | .1199 | 21 | 40 | |||||
| Hyperploidy | 33 (12) | 74.2 | 27 | 45 | ||||||
| High risk | 25 (9) | 36.1 | 32 | 52 | 85 | 21 | 58 | 0.53 | 0.58 | |
| NE | 124 (45) | |||||||||
| BMPC | ||||||||||
| <60 | 251 (92) | 79.2 | .0006 | 20 | 43 | |||||
| ≥60 | 22 (8) | 30.6 | 41 | 73 | 94 | 15 | 77 | 0.55 | 0.42 | |
| NE | 0 (0) | |||||||||
| Mayo evolving factors | ||||||||||
| eHB | ||||||||||
| No eHb | 94 (34) | 115.2 | .0002 | 12 | 30 | |||||
| eHb | 119 (44) | 42.2 | 29 | 51 | 51 | 77 | 55 | 0.64 | 0.61 | |
| NE | 60 (22) | |||||||||
| eMP | ||||||||||
| No eMP | 95 (35) | 96.1 | .0042 | 17 | 41 | |||||
| eMP | 106 (39) | 35.1 | 33 | 53 | 68 | 56 | 57 | 0.62 | 0.46 | |
| NE | 72 (26) | |||||||||
| GBTM factors | ||||||||||
| eHB | ||||||||||
| No eHb | 180 (66) | 115.2 | <.0001 | 14 | 35 | |||||
| eHb | 35 (13) | 26.3 | 43 | 66 | 89 | 36 | 79 | 0.62 | 0.43 | |
| NE | 58 (21) | |||||||||
| eMP | ||||||||||
| No eMP | 112 (41) | 115.2 | .0230 | 14 | 38 | |||||
| eMP | 33 (12) | 39.8 | 36 | 58 | 82 | 42 | 74 | 0.62 | 0.58 | |
| NE | 128 (47) | |||||||||
| eFLCr | ||||||||||
| No eFLCr | 108 (40) | NR | .0028 | 14 | 31 | |||||
| eFLCr | 19 (7) | 37.2 | 32 | 63 | 88 | 28 | 78 | 0.58 | 0.62 | |
| NE | 146 (53) | |||||||||
| edFLC | ||||||||||
| No edFLC | 104 (38) | 115.2 | .0586 | 13 | 33 | |||||
| edFLC | 23 (9) | 45.3 | 30 | 48 | 85 | 34 | 76 | 0.60 | 0.58 | |
| NE | 146 (53) |
| . | n (%) . | Median TTP, mo . | Log-rank P . | 2-y PD, % . | Overall PD, % . | Specificity, % . | Sensitivity, % . | Accuracy, % . | 2-y AUC . | Integrated time-dependent AUC . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline Factors | ||||||||||
| dFLC | ||||||||||
| dFLC <100 mg/L | 111 (41) | 92.6 | .0454 | 14 | 3 | |||||
| dFLC ≥100 mg/L | 72 (26) | 71.3 | 36 | 44 | 68 | 61 | 66 | 0.64 | 0.55 | |
| NE | 90 (33) | |||||||||
| FLCr | ||||||||||
| FLCr <8 | 81 (30) | 96.1 | .0325 | 12 | 31 | |||||
| FLCr ≥8 | 102 (37) | 71.3 | 31 | 45 | 51 | 76 | 56 | 0.63 | 0.55 | |
| NE | 90 (33) | |||||||||
| FLCr <100 | 156 (57) | 92.6 | .0019 | 19 | 36 | |||||
| FLCr ≥100 | 27 (10) | 40.2 | 44 | 56 | 90 | 28 | 75 | 0.59 | 0.59 | |
| NE | 90 (33) | |||||||||
| m-protein | ||||||||||
| <3 g/dL | 189 (69) | 115.2 | <.0001 | 20 | 38 | |||||
| ≥3 g/dL | 31 (11) | 21.8 | 45 | 74 | 91 | 29 | 75 | 0.60 | 0.47 | |
| NE | 53 (19) | |||||||||
| FISH* | ||||||||||
| Normal | 91 (33) | 73.0 | .1199 | 21 | 40 | |||||
| Hyperploidy | 33 (12) | 74.2 | 27 | 45 | ||||||
| High risk | 25 (9) | 36.1 | 32 | 52 | 85 | 21 | 58 | 0.53 | 0.58 | |
| NE | 124 (45) | |||||||||
| BMPC | ||||||||||
| <60 | 251 (92) | 79.2 | .0006 | 20 | 43 | |||||
| ≥60 | 22 (8) | 30.6 | 41 | 73 | 94 | 15 | 77 | 0.55 | 0.42 | |
| NE | 0 (0) | |||||||||
| Mayo evolving factors | ||||||||||
| eHB | ||||||||||
| No eHb | 94 (34) | 115.2 | .0002 | 12 | 30 | |||||
| eHb | 119 (44) | 42.2 | 29 | 51 | 51 | 77 | 55 | 0.64 | 0.61 | |
| NE | 60 (22) | |||||||||
| eMP | ||||||||||
| No eMP | 95 (35) | 96.1 | .0042 | 17 | 41 | |||||
| eMP | 106 (39) | 35.1 | 33 | 53 | 68 | 56 | 57 | 0.62 | 0.46 | |
| NE | 72 (26) | |||||||||
| GBTM factors | ||||||||||
| eHB | ||||||||||
| No eHb | 180 (66) | 115.2 | <.0001 | 14 | 35 | |||||
| eHb | 35 (13) | 26.3 | 43 | 66 | 89 | 36 | 79 | 0.62 | 0.43 | |
| NE | 58 (21) | |||||||||
| eMP | ||||||||||
| No eMP | 112 (41) | 115.2 | .0230 | 14 | 38 | |||||
| eMP | 33 (12) | 39.8 | 36 | 58 | 82 | 42 | 74 | 0.62 | 0.58 | |
| NE | 128 (47) | |||||||||
| eFLCr | ||||||||||
| No eFLCr | 108 (40) | NR | .0028 | 14 | 31 | |||||
| eFLCr | 19 (7) | 37.2 | 32 | 63 | 88 | 28 | 78 | 0.58 | 0.62 | |
| NE | 146 (53) | |||||||||
| edFLC | ||||||||||
| No edFLC | 104 (38) | 115.2 | .0586 | 13 | 33 | |||||
| edFLC | 23 (9) | 45.3 | 30 | 48 | 85 | 34 | 76 | 0.60 | 0.58 | |
| NE | 146 (53) |
Baseline factors are dFLC, FLCr, or BMPC at the time of SMM diagnosis. Mayo evolving factors are defined as evolving m-protein/Ig or evolving Hb over the first 12 mo of diagnosis as defined by Ravi et al. GBTM factors are determined using statistical software from evolving Hb, evolving m-protein, evolving FLCr, or evolving dFLC over the first 12 mo of diagnosis.
NE, not evaluable; NR, not reached.
For calculation of 2-y diagnostic statistics (specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, AUC), normal/hyperdiploidy/other FISH cytogenetic groups were combined.