Summary of simulation results
| Outcome . | Event rates (95% CI) . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current regimen* . | Optimal regimen† . | Risk reduction (95% CI) . | HR (95% CI) . | |
| Rivaroxaban | ||||
| Total incidence‡ | 3.33 (2.99, 3.76) | 4.60 (4.13, 5.13) | 1.25 (0.89, 1.71) | 0.73 (0.65, 0.80) |
| Ischemic stroke/SE | 1.31 (1.01, 1.72) | 0.88 (0.57, 1.25) | −0.44 (−0.54, −0.35) | 1.50 (1.34, 1.84) |
| Major bleeding | 2.02 (1.87, 2.20) | 3.72 (3.40, 4.12) | 1.70 (1.33, 2.13) | 0.54 (0.48, 0.62) |
| Mortality§ | 40.3 (33.5, 48.9) | 46.4 (38.9, 54.7) | 5.81 (3.92, 8.16) | 0.87 (0.83, 0.91) |
| Death from ischemic stroke/SE | 22.4 (15.6, 31.1) | 20.2 (13.2, 28.7) | −2.28 (−2.76, −1.86) | 1.11 (1.07, 1.20) |
| Death from major bleeding | 17.9 (16.9, 19.0) | 26.1 (23.8, 28.9) | 8.15 (6.25, 10.4) | 0.69 (0.64, 0.74) |
| Apixaban | ||||
| Total incidence‡ | 3.25 (2.95, 3.67) | 3.19 (2.87, 3.61) | −0.07 (−0.12, −0.03) | 1.02 (1.01, 1.04) |
| Ischemic stroke/SE | 1.07 (0.78, 1.45) | 1.18 (0.90, 1.57) | 0.11 (0.09, 0.14) | 0.90 (0.87, 0.93) |
| Major bleeding | 2.19 (2.05, 2.36) | 2.00 (1.85, 2.19) | −0.18 (−0.22, −0.15) | 1.09 (1.07, 1.11) |
| Mortality§ | 39.2 (32.5, 47.6) | 41.2 (34.6, 49.9) | 2.07 (1.04, 3.17) | 0.95 (0.92, 0.97) |
| Death from ischemic stroke/SE | 22.8 (16.0, 31.4) | 27.2 (20.7, 36.2) | 4.58 (3.74, 5.58) | 0.83 (0.76, 0.88) |
| Death from major bleeding | 16.5 (15.6, 17.6) | 14.0 (12.9, 15.3) | −2.49 (−2.95, −2.05) | 1.18 (1.14, 1.22) |
| Edoxaban | ||||
| Total incidence‡ | 3.49 (3.17, 3.92) | 3.49 (3.17, 3.92) | NE | NE |
| Ischemic stroke/SE | 1.19 (0.89, 1.58) | 1.19 (0.89, 1.58) | NE | NE |
| Major bleeding | 2.31 (2.18, 2.46) | 2.31 (2.18, 2.46) | NE | NE |
| Mortality§ | 42.3 (35.5, 51.0) | 43.5 (36.5, 52.4) | 1.17 (−0.18, 2.34) | 0.97 (0.95, 1.00) |
| Death from ischemic stroke/SE | 23.2 (16.4, 31.9) | 27.3 (20.4, 36.3) | 4.13 (3.20, 5.21) | 0.85 (0.79, 0.89) |
| Death from major bleeding | 19.1 (18.1, 20.4) | 16.1 (15.2, 17.2) | −2.98 (−3.70, −2.35) | 1.18 (1.14, 1.23) |
| Outcome . | Event rates (95% CI) . | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current regimen* . | Optimal regimen† . | Risk reduction (95% CI) . | HR (95% CI) . | |
| Rivaroxaban | ||||
| Total incidence‡ | 3.33 (2.99, 3.76) | 4.60 (4.13, 5.13) | 1.25 (0.89, 1.71) | 0.73 (0.65, 0.80) |
| Ischemic stroke/SE | 1.31 (1.01, 1.72) | 0.88 (0.57, 1.25) | −0.44 (−0.54, −0.35) | 1.50 (1.34, 1.84) |
| Major bleeding | 2.02 (1.87, 2.20) | 3.72 (3.40, 4.12) | 1.70 (1.33, 2.13) | 0.54 (0.48, 0.62) |
| Mortality§ | 40.3 (33.5, 48.9) | 46.4 (38.9, 54.7) | 5.81 (3.92, 8.16) | 0.87 (0.83, 0.91) |
| Death from ischemic stroke/SE | 22.4 (15.6, 31.1) | 20.2 (13.2, 28.7) | −2.28 (−2.76, −1.86) | 1.11 (1.07, 1.20) |
| Death from major bleeding | 17.9 (16.9, 19.0) | 26.1 (23.8, 28.9) | 8.15 (6.25, 10.4) | 0.69 (0.64, 0.74) |
| Apixaban | ||||
| Total incidence‡ | 3.25 (2.95, 3.67) | 3.19 (2.87, 3.61) | −0.07 (−0.12, −0.03) | 1.02 (1.01, 1.04) |
| Ischemic stroke/SE | 1.07 (0.78, 1.45) | 1.18 (0.90, 1.57) | 0.11 (0.09, 0.14) | 0.90 (0.87, 0.93) |
| Major bleeding | 2.19 (2.05, 2.36) | 2.00 (1.85, 2.19) | −0.18 (−0.22, −0.15) | 1.09 (1.07, 1.11) |
| Mortality§ | 39.2 (32.5, 47.6) | 41.2 (34.6, 49.9) | 2.07 (1.04, 3.17) | 0.95 (0.92, 0.97) |
| Death from ischemic stroke/SE | 22.8 (16.0, 31.4) | 27.2 (20.7, 36.2) | 4.58 (3.74, 5.58) | 0.83 (0.76, 0.88) |
| Death from major bleeding | 16.5 (15.6, 17.6) | 14.0 (12.9, 15.3) | −2.49 (−2.95, −2.05) | 1.18 (1.14, 1.22) |
| Edoxaban | ||||
| Total incidence‡ | 3.49 (3.17, 3.92) | 3.49 (3.17, 3.92) | NE | NE |
| Ischemic stroke/SE | 1.19 (0.89, 1.58) | 1.19 (0.89, 1.58) | NE | NE |
| Major bleeding | 2.31 (2.18, 2.46) | 2.31 (2.18, 2.46) | NE | NE |
| Mortality§ | 42.3 (35.5, 51.0) | 43.5 (36.5, 52.4) | 1.17 (−0.18, 2.34) | 0.97 (0.95, 1.00) |
| Death from ischemic stroke/SE | 23.2 (16.4, 31.9) | 27.3 (20.4, 36.3) | 4.13 (3.20, 5.21) | 0.85 (0.79, 0.89) |
| Death from major bleeding | 19.1 (18.1, 20.4) | 16.1 (15.2, 17.2) | −2.98 (−3.70, −2.35) | 1.18 (1.14, 1.23) |
NE, not estimated.
Rivaroxaban, 20 mg once daily; apixaban, 5 mg twice daily; edoxaban, 60 mg once daily.
Total incidence: rivaroxaban, 5 mg once daily; apixaban, 10 mg twice daily; edoxaban, 60 mg once daily. Mortality: rivaroxaban, 10 mg once daily; apixaban, 20 mg twice daily; edoxaban, 90 mg once daily.
The incidence is represented as the event rate per 100 patient-years.
The incidence is represented as the event rate per 10 000 patient-years.