Predictive performances for 6-month NRM
| . | Response rates (%) . | Sensitivity (%) . | Specificity (%) . | Balanced accuracy (%) . | PPV (%) . | NPV (%) . | P values for NPV . | ΔNPV (95% CI), % . | AUC . | P values for AUC . | ΔAUC (95% CI) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary Tx | |||||||||||
| Training set (JSTCT) | |||||||||||
| Day 28 RR | 68.7 | 71.8 | 76.5 | 74.2 | 37.3 | 93.2 | Ref | Ref | 0.74 | Ref | Ref |
| Day 28 OR | 75.2 | 58.1 | 81.5 | 69.8 | 37.9 | 90.8 | <.001 | 2.5 (1.8-3.2) | 0.70 | <.001 | 0.044 (0.027-0.062) |
| Day 28 CR | 55.8 | 78.5 | 62.1 | 70.3 | 28.8 | 93.6 | .178 | –0.4(–1.0 to 0.2) | 0.70 | <.001 | 0.037 (0.022-0.052) |
| Validation set (JSTCT) | |||||||||||
| Day 28 RR | 68.9 | 68.3 | 76.6 | 72.5 | 37.9 | 92.0 | Ref | Ref | 0.73 | Ref | Ref |
| Day 28 OR | 74.7 | 55.5 | 81.1 | 68.3 | 38.0 | 89.6 | <.001 | 2.3 (1.3-3.4) | 0.69 | <.001 | 0.041 (0.017-0.067) |
| Day 28 CR | 54.3 | 75.9 | 60.9 | 68.4 | 28.9 | 92.3 | .556 | –0.3(–1.3 to 0.7) | 0.69 | <.001 | 0.040 (0.018-0.061) |
| MAGIC | |||||||||||
| Day 28 RR | 70.0 | 62.9 | 77.9 | 70.4 | 36.5 | 90.9 | Ref | Ref | 0.71 | Ref | Ref |
| Day 28 OR | 72.5 | 56.6 | 79.8 | 68.2 | 35.9 | 89.8 | .009 | 1.2 (0.4-2.1) | 0.68 | .032 | 0.021 (0.003-0.045) |
| Day 28 CR | 59.3 | 67.5 | 65.6 | 66.6 | 28.7 | 90.6 | .703 | 0.3 (–0.5 to 1.1) | 0.67 | <.001 | 0.040 (0.020-0.058) |
| Second-line Tx | |||||||||||
| JSTCT | |||||||||||
| Day 28 RR | 38.8 | 77.5 | 51.4 | 64.5 | 55.7 | 74.5 | Ref | Ref | 0.64 | Ref | Ref |
| Day 28 OR | 66.7 | 48.7 | 78.5 | 63.6 | 63.7 | 66.0 | <.001 | 8.4 (4.0-13.3) | 0.63 | .775 | 0.006 (–0.036 to 0.046) |
| Day 28 CR | 30.0 | 82.5 | 39.6 | 61.1 | 51.8 | 74.3 | .863 | 0.2 (–2.9 to 3.5) | 0.61 | .005 | 0.035 (0.010-0.058) |
| MAGIC | |||||||||||
| Day 28 RR | 32.1 | 90.0 | 44.3 | 67.2 | 54.7 | 86.8 | Ref | Ref | 0.67 | Ref | Ref |
| Day 28 OR | 39.8 | 77.4 | 49.2 | 63.3 | 53.1 | 76.1 | .004 | 10.5 (4.0-18.3) | 0.64 | .105 | 0.036 (–0.010 to 0.084) |
| Day 28 CR | 26.0 | 90.0 | 33.8 | 61.9 | 50.3 | 83.7 | .001 | 3.1 (1.0-6.1) | 0.62 | <.001 | 0.051 (0.025-0.082) |
| . | Response rates (%) . | Sensitivity (%) . | Specificity (%) . | Balanced accuracy (%) . | PPV (%) . | NPV (%) . | P values for NPV . | ΔNPV (95% CI), % . | AUC . | P values for AUC . | ΔAUC (95% CI) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary Tx | |||||||||||
| Training set (JSTCT) | |||||||||||
| Day 28 RR | 68.7 | 71.8 | 76.5 | 74.2 | 37.3 | 93.2 | Ref | Ref | 0.74 | Ref | Ref |
| Day 28 OR | 75.2 | 58.1 | 81.5 | 69.8 | 37.9 | 90.8 | <.001 | 2.5 (1.8-3.2) | 0.70 | <.001 | 0.044 (0.027-0.062) |
| Day 28 CR | 55.8 | 78.5 | 62.1 | 70.3 | 28.8 | 93.6 | .178 | –0.4(–1.0 to 0.2) | 0.70 | <.001 | 0.037 (0.022-0.052) |
| Validation set (JSTCT) | |||||||||||
| Day 28 RR | 68.9 | 68.3 | 76.6 | 72.5 | 37.9 | 92.0 | Ref | Ref | 0.73 | Ref | Ref |
| Day 28 OR | 74.7 | 55.5 | 81.1 | 68.3 | 38.0 | 89.6 | <.001 | 2.3 (1.3-3.4) | 0.69 | <.001 | 0.041 (0.017-0.067) |
| Day 28 CR | 54.3 | 75.9 | 60.9 | 68.4 | 28.9 | 92.3 | .556 | –0.3(–1.3 to 0.7) | 0.69 | <.001 | 0.040 (0.018-0.061) |
| MAGIC | |||||||||||
| Day 28 RR | 70.0 | 62.9 | 77.9 | 70.4 | 36.5 | 90.9 | Ref | Ref | 0.71 | Ref | Ref |
| Day 28 OR | 72.5 | 56.6 | 79.8 | 68.2 | 35.9 | 89.8 | .009 | 1.2 (0.4-2.1) | 0.68 | .032 | 0.021 (0.003-0.045) |
| Day 28 CR | 59.3 | 67.5 | 65.6 | 66.6 | 28.7 | 90.6 | .703 | 0.3 (–0.5 to 1.1) | 0.67 | <.001 | 0.040 (0.020-0.058) |
| Second-line Tx | |||||||||||
| JSTCT | |||||||||||
| Day 28 RR | 38.8 | 77.5 | 51.4 | 64.5 | 55.7 | 74.5 | Ref | Ref | 0.64 | Ref | Ref |
| Day 28 OR | 66.7 | 48.7 | 78.5 | 63.6 | 63.7 | 66.0 | <.001 | 8.4 (4.0-13.3) | 0.63 | .775 | 0.006 (–0.036 to 0.046) |
| Day 28 CR | 30.0 | 82.5 | 39.6 | 61.1 | 51.8 | 74.3 | .863 | 0.2 (–2.9 to 3.5) | 0.61 | .005 | 0.035 (0.010-0.058) |
| MAGIC | |||||||||||
| Day 28 RR | 32.1 | 90.0 | 44.3 | 67.2 | 54.7 | 86.8 | Ref | Ref | 0.67 | Ref | Ref |
| Day 28 OR | 39.8 | 77.4 | 49.2 | 63.3 | 53.1 | 76.1 | .004 | 10.5 (4.0-18.3) | 0.64 | .105 | 0.036 (–0.010 to 0.084) |
| Day 28 CR | 26.0 | 90.0 | 33.8 | 61.9 | 50.3 | 83.7 | .001 | 3.1 (1.0-6.1) | 0.62 | <.001 | 0.051 (0.025-0.082) |
Balanced accuracy is the average of sensitivity and specificity, calculated as their sum divided by 2.
Ref, reference.