Table 1.

Model input parameters, including transition probabilities, costs, and utilities

ParameterBase caseSensitivity analysis rangeMonte Carlo distributionReferences
Inputs: outcome probabilities 
pola-R-CHP     
CR after initial therapy 0.78 0.7 to 0.85 β 7  
PR after initial therapy 0.075 0.02 to 0.17 β 7  
OS rate at 2 y 0.887 0.857 to 0.916 β 7  
PFS rate at 2 y 0.767 0.727 to 0.808 β 7  
AEs     
AE leading to therapy discontinuation 0.062 0.02 to 0.09 β 7  
Febrile neutropenia 0.13 0.05 to 0.21 β 7  
Anemia requiring blood transfusion 0.12 0.05 to 0.20 β 7  
Grade II or higher peripheral neuropathy 0.138 0.06 to 0.18 β 7  
Other AEs requiring hospitalization 0.133 0.07 to 0.20 β 7  
R-CHOP     
CR after initial therapy 0.74 0.67 to 0.81 β 7  
PR after initial therapy 0.098 0.05 to 0.15 β 7  
OS rate at 2 y 0.886 0.856 to 0.916 β 7  
PFS rate at 2 y 0.702 0.658 to 0.746 β 7  
AEs     
AE leading to therapy discontinuation 0.066 0.02 to 0.11 β 7  
Febrile neutropenia 0.08 0.02 to 0.21 β 7  
Anemia requiring blood transfusion 0.084 0.04 to 0.14 β 7  
Grade III or IV peripheral neuropathy 0.167 0.09 to 0.22 β 7  
Other AEs requiring hospitalization 0.143 0.09 to 0.21 β 7  
Salvage chemoimmunotherapy     
CR after initial therapy 0.07 0.03 to 0.15 β 16  
PR after initial therapy 0.18 0.13 to 0.23 β 16  
OS rate after 1 y 0.29 0.23 to 0.32 β 16  
Auto-SCT     
Receipt of transplantation after CR 0.84 0.70 to 0.94 β 16  
Receipt of transplantation after PR 0.68 0.58 to 0.78 β 16  
OS rate after CR + SCT after 1 y 0.83 0.70 to 0.97 β 16  
OS rate after PR + SCT after 1 y 0.59 0.45 to 0.72 β 16  
CAR-T therapy (axi-cel)     
Probability of death before infusion 0.02 0.002 to 0.05 β 19  
CR after initial therapy 0.58 0.49 to 0.67 β 19  
PR after initial therapy 0.24 0.17 to 0.33 β 19  
OS rate after 1 y 0.61 0.52 to 0.70 β 19  
PFS after 1 y 0.44 0.34 to 0.53 β 19  
OS rate after 4 y 0.44 0.34 to 0.54 β 17  
Event-free survival after 2 y 0.38 0.31 to 0.41 β 17  
Inputs: costs, 2021 US dollars 
Pharmaceutical     
Pola-R-CHP 208 803 100 000 to 310 000 γ 26  
R-CHOP 78 911 40 000 to 160  000 γ 26  
Salvage chemoimmunotherapy 25 175 20 000 to 100 000 γ 26  
Axi-cel 414 248 200 000 to 700 000 γ 11,26  
Administration and AEs     
Pola-R-CHP (administration cost only) 4938 2000 to 8000 γ 27,28  
R-CHOP (administration cost only) 4938 2000 to 8000 γ 27,28  
Salvage chemoimmunotherapy 26 008 14 000 to 44 000 γ 27,28  
Axi-cel 60 687 35 000 to 70 000 γ 28,29  
Auto-SCT 139 194 70 000 to 190 000 γ 28,29  
Monthly cost of care post–CAR-T therapy progression 11 271 5000 to 16 000 γ 20  
Long-term follow-up monthly cost 150 50 to 250 γ 30  
Inputs: utilities, QALYs     
Treatment-naive DLBCL 0.83 0.4 to 0.95 β 31  
RR-DLBCL 0.63 0.3 to 0.8 β 32  
Auto-SCT therapy (2 mo) 0.43 0.2 to 0.6 β 11  
CAR-T therapy (2 mo) 0.50 0.3 to 0.7 β 11  
Remission after CAR-T therapy 0.70 0.6 to 0.9 β 11  
Long-term remission (after 5 y) 1 0.9 to 1 β 11  
Progression after CAR-T therapy 0.45 0.1 to 0.6 β 11  
Febrile neutropenia −0.09 −0.01 to −0.2 β 33  
Anemia requiring transfusion −0.04 −0.01 to −0.08 β 34  
Peripheral neuropathy −0.0689 −0.04 to – 0.14 β 35  
ParameterBase caseSensitivity analysis rangeMonte Carlo distributionReferences
Inputs: outcome probabilities 
pola-R-CHP     
CR after initial therapy 0.78 0.7 to 0.85 β 7  
PR after initial therapy 0.075 0.02 to 0.17 β 7  
OS rate at 2 y 0.887 0.857 to 0.916 β 7  
PFS rate at 2 y 0.767 0.727 to 0.808 β 7  
AEs     
AE leading to therapy discontinuation 0.062 0.02 to 0.09 β 7  
Febrile neutropenia 0.13 0.05 to 0.21 β 7  
Anemia requiring blood transfusion 0.12 0.05 to 0.20 β 7  
Grade II or higher peripheral neuropathy 0.138 0.06 to 0.18 β 7  
Other AEs requiring hospitalization 0.133 0.07 to 0.20 β 7  
R-CHOP     
CR after initial therapy 0.74 0.67 to 0.81 β 7  
PR after initial therapy 0.098 0.05 to 0.15 β 7  
OS rate at 2 y 0.886 0.856 to 0.916 β 7  
PFS rate at 2 y 0.702 0.658 to 0.746 β 7  
AEs     
AE leading to therapy discontinuation 0.066 0.02 to 0.11 β 7  
Febrile neutropenia 0.08 0.02 to 0.21 β 7  
Anemia requiring blood transfusion 0.084 0.04 to 0.14 β 7  
Grade III or IV peripheral neuropathy 0.167 0.09 to 0.22 β 7  
Other AEs requiring hospitalization 0.143 0.09 to 0.21 β 7  
Salvage chemoimmunotherapy     
CR after initial therapy 0.07 0.03 to 0.15 β 16  
PR after initial therapy 0.18 0.13 to 0.23 β 16  
OS rate after 1 y 0.29 0.23 to 0.32 β 16  
Auto-SCT     
Receipt of transplantation after CR 0.84 0.70 to 0.94 β 16  
Receipt of transplantation after PR 0.68 0.58 to 0.78 β 16  
OS rate after CR + SCT after 1 y 0.83 0.70 to 0.97 β 16  
OS rate after PR + SCT after 1 y 0.59 0.45 to 0.72 β 16  
CAR-T therapy (axi-cel)     
Probability of death before infusion 0.02 0.002 to 0.05 β 19  
CR after initial therapy 0.58 0.49 to 0.67 β 19  
PR after initial therapy 0.24 0.17 to 0.33 β 19  
OS rate after 1 y 0.61 0.52 to 0.70 β 19  
PFS after 1 y 0.44 0.34 to 0.53 β 19  
OS rate after 4 y 0.44 0.34 to 0.54 β 17  
Event-free survival after 2 y 0.38 0.31 to 0.41 β 17  
Inputs: costs, 2021 US dollars 
Pharmaceutical     
Pola-R-CHP 208 803 100 000 to 310 000 γ 26  
R-CHOP 78 911 40 000 to 160  000 γ 26  
Salvage chemoimmunotherapy 25 175 20 000 to 100 000 γ 26  
Axi-cel 414 248 200 000 to 700 000 γ 11,26  
Administration and AEs     
Pola-R-CHP (administration cost only) 4938 2000 to 8000 γ 27,28  
R-CHOP (administration cost only) 4938 2000 to 8000 γ 27,28  
Salvage chemoimmunotherapy 26 008 14 000 to 44 000 γ 27,28  
Axi-cel 60 687 35 000 to 70 000 γ 28,29  
Auto-SCT 139 194 70 000 to 190 000 γ 28,29  
Monthly cost of care post–CAR-T therapy progression 11 271 5000 to 16 000 γ 20  
Long-term follow-up monthly cost 150 50 to 250 γ 30  
Inputs: utilities, QALYs     
Treatment-naive DLBCL 0.83 0.4 to 0.95 β 31  
RR-DLBCL 0.63 0.3 to 0.8 β 32  
Auto-SCT therapy (2 mo) 0.43 0.2 to 0.6 β 11  
CAR-T therapy (2 mo) 0.50 0.3 to 0.7 β 11  
Remission after CAR-T therapy 0.70 0.6 to 0.9 β 11  
Long-term remission (after 5 y) 1 0.9 to 1 β 11  
Progression after CAR-T therapy 0.45 0.1 to 0.6 β 11  
Febrile neutropenia −0.09 −0.01 to −0.2 β 33  
Anemia requiring transfusion −0.04 −0.01 to −0.08 β 34  
Peripheral neuropathy −0.0689 −0.04 to – 0.14 β 35  

AE, adverse event; CR, complete response; PR, partial response.

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