Multivariable regression models of day +100 study cohort
| . | Risk of relapse . | Risk of relapse/death . | Risk of death . | Risk of NRM . | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) . | P value . | HR (95% CI) . | P value . | HR (95% CI) . | P value . | HR (95% CI) . | P value . | |
| Pre-HCT/day +70 to +100 MRD dynamics | ||||||||
| MRDneg/MRDneg | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| MRDpos/MRDneg | 3.09 (2.19-4.38) | <.001 | 1.99 (1.51-2.62) | <.001 | 1.81 (1.36-2.40) | <.001 | 1.10 (0.68-1.78) | .71 |
| MRDpos/MRDpos | 7.66 (3.21-18.30) | <.001 | 5.80 (2.84-11.84) | <.001 | 5.57 (2.63-11.80) | <.001 | 4.70 (1.37-16.18) | .0014 |
| Age at HCT (per 10 y) | 0.97 (0.85-1.10) | .61 | 1.07 (0.97-1.18) | .18 | 1.09 (0.98-1.21) | .12 | 1.22 (1.04-1.44) | .013 |
| HCT-CI score | ||||||||
| 0-1 | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| 2-3 | 0.97 (0.70-1.36) | .88 | 1.17 (0.91-1.50) | .22 | 1.22 (0.94-1.58) | .14 | 1.45 (1.00-2.09) | .052 |
| ≥4 | 0.95 (0.65-1.38) | .78 | 1.21 (0.93-1.58) | .16 | 1.25 (0.95-1.66) | .11 | 1.59 (1.08-2.36) | .02 |
| Disease type | ||||||||
| De novo AML | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| Secondary AML | 1.07 (0.74-1.55) | .72 | 1.06 (0.81-1.37) | .69 | 1.06 (0.80-1.40) | .68 | 1.05 (0.72-1.54) | .80 |
| MDS/AML | 0.66 (0.38-1.15) | .14 | 1.08 (0.75-1.55) | .68 | 1.21 (0.84-1.75) | .31 | 1.68 (1.03-2.72) | .036 |
| Cytogenetic risk | ||||||||
| Favorable | 0.67 (0.30-1.48) | .32 | 0.85 (0.52-1.40) | .52 | 0.83 (0.50-1.40) | .49 | 1.01 (0.53-1.91) | .98 |
| Intermediate | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| Adverse | 1.71 (1.15-2.55) | .0085 | 1.22 (0.91-1.64) | .18 | 1.16 (0.86-1.58) | .33 | 0.78 (0.49-1.22) | .28 |
| Second remission (vs first remission) | 1.01 (0.69-1.49) | .95 | 1.09 (0.83-1.45) | .53 | 1.19 (0.90-1.59) | .23 | 1.21 (0.81-1.80) | .36 |
| Pre-HCT karyotype | ||||||||
| Normalized | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| Not normalized | 1.13 (0.74-1.75) | .57 | 1.04 (0.75-1.43) | .58 | 1.15 (0.83-1.59) | .41 | 0.95 (0.58-1.55) | .84 |
| Non-MAC regimen (vs MAC) | 0.77 (0.51-1.18) | .24 | 1.19 (0.88-1.61) | .26 | 1.22 (0.89-1.67) | .22 | 1.94 (1.23-3.05) | .0041 |
| Not recovered pre-HCT blood counts∗ | 1.16 (0.85-1.59) | .35 | 1.13 (0.90-1.42) | .28 | 1.11 (0.87-1.40) | .41 | 1.08 (0.77-1.51) | .65 |
| HLA matching | ||||||||
| 10/10 HLA-identical related donor | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| 10/10 HLA-matched unrelated donor | 0.79 (0.55-1.12) | .18 | 0.86 (0.66-1.11) | .24 | 0.85 (0.65-1.11) | .22 | 0.96 (0.66-1.41) | .84 |
| 1-2 allele/antigen-mismatched donor | 1.10 (0.67-1.81) | .70 | 1.42 (1.01-2.00) | .041 | 1.48 (1.04-2.11) | .029 | 1.72 (1.06-2.77) | .027 |
| HLA-haploidentical donor | 1.89 (0.88-4.05) | .10 | 1.82 (0.98-3.38) | .058 | 1.58 (0.82-3.04) | .17 | 1.65 (0.55-4.92) | .37 |
| Umbilical cord blood | 0.55 (0.29-1.04) | .065 | 0.77 (0.50-1.21) | .26 | 0.75 (0.47-1.18) | .21 | 1.08 (0.57-2.06) | .81 |
| GVHD prophylaxis | ||||||||
| CNI + MMF w/wo sirolimus | 1.34 (0.84-2.14) | .22 | 1.31 (0.93-1.84) | 0.13 | 1.43 (1.01-2.04) | .046 | 1.17 (0.69-1.97) | .56 |
| CNI + MTX w/wo other | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| PTCy | 1.22 (0.73-2.04) | .45 | 0.90 (0.59-1.37) | .63 | 0.93 (0.60-1.44) | .75 | 0.57 (0.28-1.18) | .13 |
| CD3 chimerism at day +70 to +100 | ||||||||
| Mixed (<95%) | 1.08 (0.75-1.54) | .69 | 1.03 (0.80-1.32) | .81 | 1.03 (0.80-1.34) | .80 | 0.94 (0.66-1.35) | .75 |
| Full (≥95%) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| Decreasing CD3 chimerism | ||||||||
| No (increase or <20% decrease) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| Yes (≥20% decrease) | 0.48 (0.06-3.56) | .47 | 0.84 (0.26-2.71) | .77 | 0.98 (0.30-3.18) | .98 | 1.31 (0.30-5.67) | .72 |
| . | Risk of relapse . | Risk of relapse/death . | Risk of death . | Risk of NRM . | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) . | P value . | HR (95% CI) . | P value . | HR (95% CI) . | P value . | HR (95% CI) . | P value . | |
| Pre-HCT/day +70 to +100 MRD dynamics | ||||||||
| MRDneg/MRDneg | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| MRDpos/MRDneg | 3.09 (2.19-4.38) | <.001 | 1.99 (1.51-2.62) | <.001 | 1.81 (1.36-2.40) | <.001 | 1.10 (0.68-1.78) | .71 |
| MRDpos/MRDpos | 7.66 (3.21-18.30) | <.001 | 5.80 (2.84-11.84) | <.001 | 5.57 (2.63-11.80) | <.001 | 4.70 (1.37-16.18) | .0014 |
| Age at HCT (per 10 y) | 0.97 (0.85-1.10) | .61 | 1.07 (0.97-1.18) | .18 | 1.09 (0.98-1.21) | .12 | 1.22 (1.04-1.44) | .013 |
| HCT-CI score | ||||||||
| 0-1 | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| 2-3 | 0.97 (0.70-1.36) | .88 | 1.17 (0.91-1.50) | .22 | 1.22 (0.94-1.58) | .14 | 1.45 (1.00-2.09) | .052 |
| ≥4 | 0.95 (0.65-1.38) | .78 | 1.21 (0.93-1.58) | .16 | 1.25 (0.95-1.66) | .11 | 1.59 (1.08-2.36) | .02 |
| Disease type | ||||||||
| De novo AML | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| Secondary AML | 1.07 (0.74-1.55) | .72 | 1.06 (0.81-1.37) | .69 | 1.06 (0.80-1.40) | .68 | 1.05 (0.72-1.54) | .80 |
| MDS/AML | 0.66 (0.38-1.15) | .14 | 1.08 (0.75-1.55) | .68 | 1.21 (0.84-1.75) | .31 | 1.68 (1.03-2.72) | .036 |
| Cytogenetic risk | ||||||||
| Favorable | 0.67 (0.30-1.48) | .32 | 0.85 (0.52-1.40) | .52 | 0.83 (0.50-1.40) | .49 | 1.01 (0.53-1.91) | .98 |
| Intermediate | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| Adverse | 1.71 (1.15-2.55) | .0085 | 1.22 (0.91-1.64) | .18 | 1.16 (0.86-1.58) | .33 | 0.78 (0.49-1.22) | .28 |
| Second remission (vs first remission) | 1.01 (0.69-1.49) | .95 | 1.09 (0.83-1.45) | .53 | 1.19 (0.90-1.59) | .23 | 1.21 (0.81-1.80) | .36 |
| Pre-HCT karyotype | ||||||||
| Normalized | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| Not normalized | 1.13 (0.74-1.75) | .57 | 1.04 (0.75-1.43) | .58 | 1.15 (0.83-1.59) | .41 | 0.95 (0.58-1.55) | .84 |
| Non-MAC regimen (vs MAC) | 0.77 (0.51-1.18) | .24 | 1.19 (0.88-1.61) | .26 | 1.22 (0.89-1.67) | .22 | 1.94 (1.23-3.05) | .0041 |
| Not recovered pre-HCT blood counts∗ | 1.16 (0.85-1.59) | .35 | 1.13 (0.90-1.42) | .28 | 1.11 (0.87-1.40) | .41 | 1.08 (0.77-1.51) | .65 |
| HLA matching | ||||||||
| 10/10 HLA-identical related donor | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| 10/10 HLA-matched unrelated donor | 0.79 (0.55-1.12) | .18 | 0.86 (0.66-1.11) | .24 | 0.85 (0.65-1.11) | .22 | 0.96 (0.66-1.41) | .84 |
| 1-2 allele/antigen-mismatched donor | 1.10 (0.67-1.81) | .70 | 1.42 (1.01-2.00) | .041 | 1.48 (1.04-2.11) | .029 | 1.72 (1.06-2.77) | .027 |
| HLA-haploidentical donor | 1.89 (0.88-4.05) | .10 | 1.82 (0.98-3.38) | .058 | 1.58 (0.82-3.04) | .17 | 1.65 (0.55-4.92) | .37 |
| Umbilical cord blood | 0.55 (0.29-1.04) | .065 | 0.77 (0.50-1.21) | .26 | 0.75 (0.47-1.18) | .21 | 1.08 (0.57-2.06) | .81 |
| GVHD prophylaxis | ||||||||
| CNI + MMF w/wo sirolimus | 1.34 (0.84-2.14) | .22 | 1.31 (0.93-1.84) | 0.13 | 1.43 (1.01-2.04) | .046 | 1.17 (0.69-1.97) | .56 |
| CNI + MTX w/wo other | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| PTCy | 1.22 (0.73-2.04) | .45 | 0.90 (0.59-1.37) | .63 | 0.93 (0.60-1.44) | .75 | 0.57 (0.28-1.18) | .13 |
| CD3 chimerism at day +70 to +100 | ||||||||
| Mixed (<95%) | 1.08 (0.75-1.54) | .69 | 1.03 (0.80-1.32) | .81 | 1.03 (0.80-1.34) | .80 | 0.94 (0.66-1.35) | .75 |
| Full (≥95%) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| Decreasing CD3 chimerism | ||||||||
| No (increase or <20% decrease) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | 1 (Reference) | ||||
| Yes (≥20% decrease) | 0.48 (0.06-3.56) | .47 | 0.84 (0.26-2.71) | .77 | 0.98 (0.30-3.18) | .98 | 1.31 (0.30-5.67) | .72 |
Abbreviations are explained in Table 1.
Recovered: ANC ≥ 103/μL and platelets ≥ 105/μL; not recovered: ANC < 103/μL and/or platelets < 105/μL.