Table 3.

Univariate regression models of day +100 study cohort

Risk of relapseRisk of relapse/deathRisk of deathRisk of NRM
HR (95% CI)P valueHR (95% CI)P valueHR (95% CI)P valueHR (95% CI)P value
Pre-HCT MRD (vs no pre-HCT MRD) 3.38 (2.50-4.57) <.001 2.25 (1.77-2.86) <.001 2.08 (1.62-2.66) <.001 1.24 (0.81-1.89) .32 
Day +70 to +100 post-HCT MRD 5.19 (3.18-16.28) <.001 5.68 (3.01-10.70) <.001 5.22 (2.68-10.17) <.001 4.28 (1.57-11.63) .0044 
Pre-HCT/day +70 to +100 MRD dynamics         
MRDneg/MRDneg 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
MRDneg/MRDpos --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 
MRDpos/MRDneg 3.16 (2.31-4.32) <.001 2.10 (1.64-2.70) <.001 1.96 (1.51-2.53) <.001 1.15 (0.74-1.80) .54 
MRDpos/MRDpos 9.37 (4.12-21.29) <.001 5.90 (3.03-11.52) <.001 5.27 (2.60-10.70) <.001 3.32 (1.05-10.50) .041 
Day +20 to +40/+70 to +100 MRD dynamics         
MRDneg/MRDneg 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
MRDneg/MRDpos --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 
MRDpos/MRDneg 1.98 (0.63-6.19) .24 2.29 (1.02-5.13) .0045 1.86 (0.77-4.49) .17 2.73 (0.87-8.56) .086 
MRDpos/MRDpos 5.90 (2.19-15.91) <.001 3.45 (1.42-8.37) .0062 2.90 (1.08-7.80) .035 1.28 (0.18-9.21) .81 
Age at HCT (per 10 y) 1.11 (1.03-1.19) .0044 1.20 (1.14-1.27) <.001 1.22 (1.15-1.30) <.001 1.40 (1.27-1.55) <.001 
HCT-CI score         
0-1 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
2-3 1.07 (0.78-1.47) .68 1.23 (0.97-1.57) .084 1.27 (0.99-1.63) .058 1.48 (1.03-2.13) .033 
≥4 0.96 (0.67-1.36) .81 1.29 (1.00-1.65) .046 1.34 (1.04-1.74) .026 1.77 (1.23-2.55) .002 
Disease type         
De novo AML 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
Secondary AML 1.38 (0.99-1.93) .057 1.39 (1.09-1.77) .007 1.42 (1.11-1.82) .0059 1.41 (0.99-1.99) .056 
MDS/AML 1.05 (0.63-1.74) .85 1.31 (0.94-1.83) .11 1.42 (1.01-1.99) .043 1.61 (1.03-2.52) .036 
Cytogenetic risk         
Favorable 0.56 (0.28-1.15) .12 0.71 (0.46-1.10) .13 0.71 (0.45-1.12) .14 0.83 (0.48-1.45) .52 
Intermediate 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
Adverse 1.75 (1.29-2.38) <.001 1.26 (1.00-1.59) .052 1.21 (0.95-1.55) .12 0.83 (0.57-1.21) .33 
Second remission (vs first remission) 0.95 (0.67-1.35) .77 0.99 (0.77-1.27) .91 1.04 (0.80-1.34) .78 1.03 (0.72-1.47) .88 
Pre-HCT karyotype         
Normalized 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
Not normalized 1.64 (1.11-2.41) .013 1.51 (1.12-2.02) .0062 1.60 (1.18-2.17) .0022 1.35 (0.86-2.11) .19 
Non-MAC regimen (vs MAC) 1.00 (0.75-1.33) 1.00 1.70 (1.39-2.08) <.001 1.86 (1.51-2.30) <.001 3.02 (2.25-4.06) <.001 
Not recovered pre-HCT blood counts∗  1.25 (0.93-1.68) .14 1.32 (1.06-1.63) .012 1.32 (1.05-1.65) .016 1.39 (1.02-1.90) .036 
Stem cell source         
Peripheral blood 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
Bone marrow 1.29 (0.79-2.09) .31 0.89 (0.60-1.32) .56 0.82 (0.55-1.24) .35 0.55 (0.28-1.07) .078 
Umbilical cord blood 0.73 (0.40-1.17) .20 0.77 (0.55-1.08) .13 0.79 (0.55-1.12) .18 0.82 (0.51-1.32) .41 
HLA matching         
10/10 HLA-identical related donor 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
10/10 HLA-matched unrelated donor 0.86 (0.61-1.20) .38 0.99 (0.77-1.27) .93 1.00 (0.77-1.29) .98 1.15 (0.80-1.67) .45 
1-2 allele/antigen-mismatched donor 1.14 (0.70-1.85) .60 1.64 (1.18-2.28) .003 1.75 (1.25-2.45) .0012 2.34 (1.48-3.68) <.001 
HLA-haploidentical donor 1.75 (0.94-3.29) .08 1.61 (0.96-2.71) .072 1.49 (0.86-2.58) .16 1.27 (0.50-3.23) .61 
Umbilical cord blood 0.68 (0.40-1.17) .17 0.84 (0.58-1.23) .38 0.87 (0.59-1.30) .50 1.06 (0.61-1.82) .84 
GVHD prophylaxis         
CNI + MMF w/wo sirolimus 1.06 (0.79-1.44) .69 1.52 (1.23-1.89) <.001 1.69 (1.34-2.12) <.001 2.21 (1.61-3.03) <.001 
CNI + MTX w/wo other 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
PTCy 1.26 (0.84-1.90) .26 1.16 (0.83-1.62) .38 1.20 (0.84-1.71) .31 0.93 (0.51-1.67) .80 
CD3 chimerism at day +70 to +100         
Mixed (<95%) 0.99 (0.71-1.38) .96 1.12 (0.89-1.40) .35 1.12 (0.88-1.42) .36 1.25 (0.91-1.73) .17 
Full (≥95%) 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
Decreasing CD3 chimerism         
No (increase or <20% decrease) 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
Yes (≥20% decrease) 0.44 (0.06-3.17) .42 0.63 (0.20-1.96) .42 0.68 (0.22-2.13) .51 0.79 (0.19-3.19) .74 
Risk of relapseRisk of relapse/deathRisk of deathRisk of NRM
HR (95% CI)P valueHR (95% CI)P valueHR (95% CI)P valueHR (95% CI)P value
Pre-HCT MRD (vs no pre-HCT MRD) 3.38 (2.50-4.57) <.001 2.25 (1.77-2.86) <.001 2.08 (1.62-2.66) <.001 1.24 (0.81-1.89) .32 
Day +70 to +100 post-HCT MRD 5.19 (3.18-16.28) <.001 5.68 (3.01-10.70) <.001 5.22 (2.68-10.17) <.001 4.28 (1.57-11.63) .0044 
Pre-HCT/day +70 to +100 MRD dynamics         
MRDneg/MRDneg 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
MRDneg/MRDpos --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 
MRDpos/MRDneg 3.16 (2.31-4.32) <.001 2.10 (1.64-2.70) <.001 1.96 (1.51-2.53) <.001 1.15 (0.74-1.80) .54 
MRDpos/MRDpos 9.37 (4.12-21.29) <.001 5.90 (3.03-11.52) <.001 5.27 (2.60-10.70) <.001 3.32 (1.05-10.50) .041 
Day +20 to +40/+70 to +100 MRD dynamics         
MRDneg/MRDneg 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
MRDneg/MRDpos --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 
MRDpos/MRDneg 1.98 (0.63-6.19) .24 2.29 (1.02-5.13) .0045 1.86 (0.77-4.49) .17 2.73 (0.87-8.56) .086 
MRDpos/MRDpos 5.90 (2.19-15.91) <.001 3.45 (1.42-8.37) .0062 2.90 (1.08-7.80) .035 1.28 (0.18-9.21) .81 
Age at HCT (per 10 y) 1.11 (1.03-1.19) .0044 1.20 (1.14-1.27) <.001 1.22 (1.15-1.30) <.001 1.40 (1.27-1.55) <.001 
HCT-CI score         
0-1 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
2-3 1.07 (0.78-1.47) .68 1.23 (0.97-1.57) .084 1.27 (0.99-1.63) .058 1.48 (1.03-2.13) .033 
≥4 0.96 (0.67-1.36) .81 1.29 (1.00-1.65) .046 1.34 (1.04-1.74) .026 1.77 (1.23-2.55) .002 
Disease type         
De novo AML 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
Secondary AML 1.38 (0.99-1.93) .057 1.39 (1.09-1.77) .007 1.42 (1.11-1.82) .0059 1.41 (0.99-1.99) .056 
MDS/AML 1.05 (0.63-1.74) .85 1.31 (0.94-1.83) .11 1.42 (1.01-1.99) .043 1.61 (1.03-2.52) .036 
Cytogenetic risk         
Favorable 0.56 (0.28-1.15) .12 0.71 (0.46-1.10) .13 0.71 (0.45-1.12) .14 0.83 (0.48-1.45) .52 
Intermediate 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
Adverse 1.75 (1.29-2.38) <.001 1.26 (1.00-1.59) .052 1.21 (0.95-1.55) .12 0.83 (0.57-1.21) .33 
Second remission (vs first remission) 0.95 (0.67-1.35) .77 0.99 (0.77-1.27) .91 1.04 (0.80-1.34) .78 1.03 (0.72-1.47) .88 
Pre-HCT karyotype         
Normalized 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
Not normalized 1.64 (1.11-2.41) .013 1.51 (1.12-2.02) .0062 1.60 (1.18-2.17) .0022 1.35 (0.86-2.11) .19 
Non-MAC regimen (vs MAC) 1.00 (0.75-1.33) 1.00 1.70 (1.39-2.08) <.001 1.86 (1.51-2.30) <.001 3.02 (2.25-4.06) <.001 
Not recovered pre-HCT blood counts∗  1.25 (0.93-1.68) .14 1.32 (1.06-1.63) .012 1.32 (1.05-1.65) .016 1.39 (1.02-1.90) .036 
Stem cell source         
Peripheral blood 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
Bone marrow 1.29 (0.79-2.09) .31 0.89 (0.60-1.32) .56 0.82 (0.55-1.24) .35 0.55 (0.28-1.07) .078 
Umbilical cord blood 0.73 (0.40-1.17) .20 0.77 (0.55-1.08) .13 0.79 (0.55-1.12) .18 0.82 (0.51-1.32) .41 
HLA matching         
10/10 HLA-identical related donor 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
10/10 HLA-matched unrelated donor 0.86 (0.61-1.20) .38 0.99 (0.77-1.27) .93 1.00 (0.77-1.29) .98 1.15 (0.80-1.67) .45 
1-2 allele/antigen-mismatched donor 1.14 (0.70-1.85) .60 1.64 (1.18-2.28) .003 1.75 (1.25-2.45) .0012 2.34 (1.48-3.68) <.001 
HLA-haploidentical donor 1.75 (0.94-3.29) .08 1.61 (0.96-2.71) .072 1.49 (0.86-2.58) .16 1.27 (0.50-3.23) .61 
Umbilical cord blood 0.68 (0.40-1.17) .17 0.84 (0.58-1.23) .38 0.87 (0.59-1.30) .50 1.06 (0.61-1.82) .84 
GVHD prophylaxis         
CNI + MMF w/wo sirolimus 1.06 (0.79-1.44) .69 1.52 (1.23-1.89) <.001 1.69 (1.34-2.12) <.001 2.21 (1.61-3.03) <.001 
CNI + MTX w/wo other 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
PTCy 1.26 (0.84-1.90) .26 1.16 (0.83-1.62) .38 1.20 (0.84-1.71) .31 0.93 (0.51-1.67) .80 
CD3 chimerism at day +70 to +100         
Mixed (<95%) 0.99 (0.71-1.38) .96 1.12 (0.89-1.40) .35 1.12 (0.88-1.42) .36 1.25 (0.91-1.73) .17 
Full (≥95%) 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
Decreasing CD3 chimerism         
No (increase or <20% decrease) 1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  1 (Reference)  
Yes (≥20% decrease) 0.44 (0.06-3.17) .42 0.63 (0.20-1.96) .42 0.68 (0.22-2.13) .51 0.79 (0.19-3.19) .74 

Abbreviations are explained in Table 1.

∗

Recovered: ANC ≥ 103/μL and platelets ≥ 105/μL; not recovered: ANC < 103/μL and/or platelets < 105/μL.

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