Table 2.

Health state transition probabilities for the adverse- and intermediate-risk Markov decision analyses

Health state probabilityWeighted averageReferences
Adverse-risk model   
Relapse with AZ and SCT (year-by-year data) 0.227, 0.030, 0, 0, and 0 Pollyea et al17 and Winters et al18  
Death after relapse with AZ and SCT 0.62 Pollyea et al17 and Salhotra et al19  
Death within the first year of AZ and SCT 0.152 Pollyea et al,17 Winters et al,18 and Salhotra et al 19  
SCT after induction with AZ 0.343 Cherry et al,7 Pollyea et al,17 and Salhotra et al 19  
No SCT after induction with AZ 0.425 Cherry et al,7 Pollyea et al,17 and Salhotra et al19  
Early death with AZ 0.049 Cherry et al7  
Relapse with AZ and no SCT (year-by-year data) 0.51, 0.28, 0.2, 0.18, and 0 Cherry et al7  
Death after relapse with AZ and no SCT 0.784 Garciaz et al20 and Johnson et al21  
Death within the first year of AZ and no SCT 0.42 Cherry et al7  
Composite CR with AZ after primary refractory disease 0.216 Garciaz et al20 and Johnson et al21  
Relapse with IC and SCT (year-by-year data) 0.507, 0.147, 0.106, 0, and 0.158 Bataller et al,22 Herold et al,23 and Hansen et al24  
Death after relapse with IC and SCT 0.727 Burnett et al25 and Herold et al23  
Death within the first year of IC and SCT 0.423 Bataller et al,22 Herold et al,23 Hansen et al24  
SCT after induction with IC 0.351 Bataller et al,22 Burnett et al,25 and Lo et al26  
No SCT after induction with IC 0.355 Bataller et al,22 Burnett et al,25 and Lo et al26  
Early death with IC 0.102 Bataller et al22  
Relapse with IC and no SCT (year-by-year data) 0.652, 0.352, 0.110, 0.120, and 0 Herold et al23 and Burnett et al25  
Death after relapse with IC and no SCT 0.794 Herold et al23 and Burnett et al25  
Death within the first year of IC and no SCT 0.564 Herold et al23 and Rausch et al27  
Composite CR with IC after primary refractory disease 0.66 Bataller et al22  
Intermediate-risk model   
Relapse with AZ and SCT (year-by-year data) 0.42, 0, 0, 0, 0 Pasvolsky et al28  
Death after relapse with AZ and SCT 0.421 Pasvolsky et al28  
Death within the first year of AZ and SCT 0.368 Pasvolsky et al28  
SCT after induction with AZ 0.317 Pollyea et al,29 Pollyea et al,17 and Salhotra et al19  
No SCT after induction with AZ 0.392 Pollyea et al,29 Pollyea et al,17 and Salhotra et al19  
Early death with AZ 0.049 Cherry et al7  
Relapse with AZ and no SCT (year-by-year data) 0.507, 0.432, 0.129, 0, 0 Pollyea et al29 and DiNardo et al5  
Death after relapse with AZ and no SCT 0.763 Garciaz et al20 and Johnson et al21  
Death within the first year of AZ and no SCT 0.444 Pollyea et al29 and DiNardo et al5  
Composite CR with AZ after primary refractory disease 0.237 Garciaz et al20 and Johnson et al21  
Relapse with IC and SCT (year-by-year data) 0.359, 0.111, 0.088, 0.046, and 0.018 Batalleret al,22 Herold et al,23 and Hansen et al 24  
Death after relapse with IC and SCT 0.576 Burnett et al25 and Herold et al23  
Death within the first year of IC and SCT 0.283 Bataller et al,22 Herold et al,23 and Hansen et al24  
SCT after induction with IC 0.263 Bataller et al,22 Burnett et al,25 and Lo26 ASH 2022 
No SCT after induction with IC 0.535 Bataller et al,22 Burnett et al,25 and Lo26 ASH 2022 
Early death with IC 0.119 Bataller et al22  
Relapse with IC and no SCT (year-by-year data) 0.394, 0.210, 0.083, 0.065, 0.030 Herold et al23 and Burnett et al25  
Death after relapse with IC and no SCT 0.674 Herold et al23 and Burnett et al25  
Death within the first year of IC and no SCT 0.392 Herold et al23 and Rausch et al27  
Composite CR with IC after primary refractory disease 0.667 Bataller et al22  
Health state probabilityWeighted averageReferences
Adverse-risk model   
Relapse with AZ and SCT (year-by-year data) 0.227, 0.030, 0, 0, and 0 Pollyea et al17 and Winters et al18  
Death after relapse with AZ and SCT 0.62 Pollyea et al17 and Salhotra et al19  
Death within the first year of AZ and SCT 0.152 Pollyea et al,17 Winters et al,18 and Salhotra et al 19  
SCT after induction with AZ 0.343 Cherry et al,7 Pollyea et al,17 and Salhotra et al 19  
No SCT after induction with AZ 0.425 Cherry et al,7 Pollyea et al,17 and Salhotra et al19  
Early death with AZ 0.049 Cherry et al7  
Relapse with AZ and no SCT (year-by-year data) 0.51, 0.28, 0.2, 0.18, and 0 Cherry et al7  
Death after relapse with AZ and no SCT 0.784 Garciaz et al20 and Johnson et al21  
Death within the first year of AZ and no SCT 0.42 Cherry et al7  
Composite CR with AZ after primary refractory disease 0.216 Garciaz et al20 and Johnson et al21  
Relapse with IC and SCT (year-by-year data) 0.507, 0.147, 0.106, 0, and 0.158 Bataller et al,22 Herold et al,23 and Hansen et al24  
Death after relapse with IC and SCT 0.727 Burnett et al25 and Herold et al23  
Death within the first year of IC and SCT 0.423 Bataller et al,22 Herold et al,23 Hansen et al24  
SCT after induction with IC 0.351 Bataller et al,22 Burnett et al,25 and Lo et al26  
No SCT after induction with IC 0.355 Bataller et al,22 Burnett et al,25 and Lo et al26  
Early death with IC 0.102 Bataller et al22  
Relapse with IC and no SCT (year-by-year data) 0.652, 0.352, 0.110, 0.120, and 0 Herold et al23 and Burnett et al25  
Death after relapse with IC and no SCT 0.794 Herold et al23 and Burnett et al25  
Death within the first year of IC and no SCT 0.564 Herold et al23 and Rausch et al27  
Composite CR with IC after primary refractory disease 0.66 Bataller et al22  
Intermediate-risk model   
Relapse with AZ and SCT (year-by-year data) 0.42, 0, 0, 0, 0 Pasvolsky et al28  
Death after relapse with AZ and SCT 0.421 Pasvolsky et al28  
Death within the first year of AZ and SCT 0.368 Pasvolsky et al28  
SCT after induction with AZ 0.317 Pollyea et al,29 Pollyea et al,17 and Salhotra et al19  
No SCT after induction with AZ 0.392 Pollyea et al,29 Pollyea et al,17 and Salhotra et al19  
Early death with AZ 0.049 Cherry et al7  
Relapse with AZ and no SCT (year-by-year data) 0.507, 0.432, 0.129, 0, 0 Pollyea et al29 and DiNardo et al5  
Death after relapse with AZ and no SCT 0.763 Garciaz et al20 and Johnson et al21  
Death within the first year of AZ and no SCT 0.444 Pollyea et al29 and DiNardo et al5  
Composite CR with AZ after primary refractory disease 0.237 Garciaz et al20 and Johnson et al21  
Relapse with IC and SCT (year-by-year data) 0.359, 0.111, 0.088, 0.046, and 0.018 Batalleret al,22 Herold et al,23 and Hansen et al 24  
Death after relapse with IC and SCT 0.576 Burnett et al25 and Herold et al23  
Death within the first year of IC and SCT 0.283 Bataller et al,22 Herold et al,23 and Hansen et al24  
SCT after induction with IC 0.263 Bataller et al,22 Burnett et al,25 and Lo26 ASH 2022 
No SCT after induction with IC 0.535 Bataller et al,22 Burnett et al,25 and Lo26 ASH 2022 
Early death with IC 0.119 Bataller et al22  
Relapse with IC and no SCT (year-by-year data) 0.394, 0.210, 0.083, 0.065, 0.030 Herold et al23 and Burnett et al25  
Death after relapse with IC and no SCT 0.674 Herold et al23 and Burnett et al25  
Death within the first year of IC and no SCT 0.392 Herold et al23 and Rausch et al27  
Composite CR with IC after primary refractory disease 0.667 Bataller et al22  

AZ, azacitidine and venetoclax

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