Health state transitions in the ESHL sub-model
| Transition . | Estimate and description . |
|---|---|
| Remission to first relapse: CMT | Yearly transition probabilities for the first 5 y after initial treatment obtained from an exponential distribution: rate = 0.001061 (95% CI: 0.000603-0.001869). Using the point estimate, this corresponds to a 1.3% yearly probability of relapse over the 5 y.9 |
| Remission to first relapse: chemotherapy-alone | Yearly transition probabilities for the first 5 y after initial treatment obtained from a log-normal distribution: log mean = 7.837 (95% CI: 6.350-9.324), log SD = 7.837 (95% CI: 2.478-4.622). Using the point estimates, this corresponds to yearly relapse probabilities of 5.7%, 2.9%, 2.2%, 1.8%, and 1.6% over the 5 y.9 |
| Remission to cured | Patients were considered cured after 5 y. |
| First relapse to second relapse | Yearly transition probabilities for the first 3 y after first relapse obtained from a log-normal distribution: log mean = 3.715 (95% CI: 3.359-4.071), log SD = 1.577 (95% CI: 1.291-1.928). Using the point estimates, this corresponds to yearly relapse probabilities of 21.8%, 19.1%, and 15.8% over the 3 y. |
| First relapse to cured | Patients were considered cured after 3 y. |
| Second relapse to death from HL | Yearly transition probabilities for the first 5 y after second relapse obtained from an exponential distribution: rate = 0.00886 (95% CI: 0.00571-0.01373). Using the point estimate, this corresponds to a 10.1% yearly probability of death from HL over the 10 y. |
| Second relapse to cured | Patients were considered cured after 10 y. |
| Transition . | Estimate and description . |
|---|---|
| Remission to first relapse: CMT | Yearly transition probabilities for the first 5 y after initial treatment obtained from an exponential distribution: rate = 0.001061 (95% CI: 0.000603-0.001869). Using the point estimate, this corresponds to a 1.3% yearly probability of relapse over the 5 y.9 |
| Remission to first relapse: chemotherapy-alone | Yearly transition probabilities for the first 5 y after initial treatment obtained from a log-normal distribution: log mean = 7.837 (95% CI: 6.350-9.324), log SD = 7.837 (95% CI: 2.478-4.622). Using the point estimates, this corresponds to yearly relapse probabilities of 5.7%, 2.9%, 2.2%, 1.8%, and 1.6% over the 5 y.9 |
| Remission to cured | Patients were considered cured after 5 y. |
| First relapse to second relapse | Yearly transition probabilities for the first 3 y after first relapse obtained from a log-normal distribution: log mean = 3.715 (95% CI: 3.359-4.071), log SD = 1.577 (95% CI: 1.291-1.928). Using the point estimates, this corresponds to yearly relapse probabilities of 21.8%, 19.1%, and 15.8% over the 3 y. |
| First relapse to cured | Patients were considered cured after 3 y. |
| Second relapse to death from HL | Yearly transition probabilities for the first 5 y after second relapse obtained from an exponential distribution: rate = 0.00886 (95% CI: 0.00571-0.01373). Using the point estimate, this corresponds to a 10.1% yearly probability of death from HL over the 10 y. |
| Second relapse to cured | Patients were considered cured after 10 y. |
CI, confidence interval; SD, standard deviation.